Thank you for that Charles, I completely agree. By definition, EAs are aligned with the mission of doing good with the resources they have available. Investing in oneself can be one of the most high-leverage channels for increasing productivity and impact—I’ll be more mindful about statements like this going forward :)
Sam Anschell
Karma: 448
I love the spirit of this post and I agree with almost everything Charles said. My only difference of opinion is that I don’t think people are taxed on gift income, so long as a giver provides under $16,000 in a year to any single individual and under $12.06MM in their lifetime. Letting participants keep the tax savings could be a polite way to compensate them for their involvement without dampening their altruistic glow.
I’d be excited by a project that explored surrogate donation from employees of these companies to multiply the impact of our giving. I expect the cap on Meta’s Giving Tuesday match will barely scratch the surface of EAs’ personal donations this year. My preliminary thoughts to scale this idea would be:
Learn the fine print of the programs. Some employers explicitly disallow donating money that is given to an employee for this purpose.
Try to form a nuanced understanding of the long term incidence of doing this. I imagine many companies would discontinue or scale back their charity benefits if it was exploited in this way.
I suspect that it would still be net good because of which charities would get bonus funding, but companies price in the fact that most employees don’t utilize donation matching & I suspect they would adjust their offering if it were used more.Focus on employees of companies with the most generous matches first. Possibly establish a fund where EAs could pool their money and funnel them through each surrogate donor to max out the donor’s gift cap.
I want to reiterate what Charles said about disassociating this from EA, and I recommend speaking to a(t least one) lawyer before making any moves. This feels like the type of ends-justifying-means action that is righteous in intent, but underhanded in public appearance.
Feel free to reply here or PM me if you’d like to flesh this out. I think it’s a great idea, thanks for sharing!
Thank you for this thoughtful comment, Tyler—I appreciate your perspective and I think it will help readers improve their decision-making.
On point 1: I suspect this is less true for entry level roles, especially those that don’t specify an advanced degree or technical skill requirement. But it’s valuable to know that this was your experience when reviewing applications, and this updates my opinion.
On point 2: I agree there are more early career EAs looking for EA jobs than entry level EA job openings at any given time, but I disagree with the conclusion that early career EAs should apply to fewer EA jobs.
It seems hard to get the same level of mentorship, relevant skills, at most “non-EA” orgs. If you’re working as e.g. an SWE for FAANG, your employer’s incentives are to invest in your professional development insofar as that increases your productivity and job satisfaction (for retention). If you’re working as e.g. a researcher for the Center for Global Development, your employer’s incentives are to invest in your professional development to maximize your lifetime impact on your & CGD’s shared mission (agnostic as to whether you achieve that impact while working at CGD or elsewhere).
You might be a great culture fit, or have a particularly relevant background that headhunters or EA orgs wouldn’t know about unless you actively apply.
Of the current entry level roles on 80k’s job board, there are a pretty diverse array of functions. I agree that applying to all 224 wouldn’t be a good use of time, but regularly checking back in and applying to promising leads seems like a good idea to me (especially keeping an eye out for jobs matching any specialized background/knowledge base you might have, like in policy, academia, development economics, ML, infectious disease, etc.)
I personally made the mistake of applying to a bunch of stuff all at once, feeling disappointed about not getting anything, and giving up until I felt motivated to apply again later. I think I should have applied consistently and internalized that the EV of an application working out (in my opinion) makes the application process worth it.
The post and this comment each have the tacit asterisk that individuals’ situations are unique, and that I’d be excited for the hypothetical average early-career reader to apply for more EA jobs/get more involved with EA projects on the margin. Some people don’t have the time/financial runway to apply for lots of jobs or volunteer for EA projects, and I hope my advice isn’t perceived as one-size-fits-all.
On point 3: Couldn’t agree more :)
I know 80k used to recommend careers in management consulting pretty strongly for skill development, and these days my read is that they’re starting to recommend more “direct work” roles right away. I’d love to learn 80k’s current view, and I would recommend that a reader weight the perspectives of the professionals (those with recruiting/hiring experience like Tyler, and those who research the EA job landscape like 80k) much stronger than my perspective when deciding what makes most sense for their personal career circumstances.
Like Martin and Rob, I also thought of EA when I found this opportunity. Here is the full guide I wrote on how to make the most out of sign up bonuses (two friends and I were able to make over $50,000 in five days) https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/29EZBsbLovTgu6C3B/ea-fundraising-through-advantage-sports-betting-a-guide
I know this post was written about NY bonuses, but there are 11 states with better opportunities for this than NYC. In order of most new user bonus dollars to fewest, here are the twelve states with at least five licensed online sports books:
New Jersey, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana, Virginia, Iowa, Tennessee, Arizona, Illinois, West Virginia, New York.
To Kasey’s point, taxes are a HUGE consideration when considering whether this is worth doing. If you take the standard deduction, you will not be able to deduct losses against wins and you’re forced into a strategy that attempts to lose very few bets (which is actually opposite of the strategy that maximizes EV of promos like Twinspires’ and BetMGM’s.)
Also: most sites do not let you bet bonus funds before betting your deposit. The only way to eliminate risk is by betting both sides of the same game. Most sites have a stipulation that you must bet odds longer than −200 to claim bonus funds, so you cannot be more than a 67% favorite to qualify for this promo by betting one side. I think it is reckless for someone who only has $2,000 to their name be betting $1,000 via these promos, though the Caesars promo does give the bettor very favorable terms.
It’s easy to see this as completely free money both due to survivorship bias and the availability heuristic. Rob ran above EV, so did I, and so did the friend I coached through this process in Michigan. There is risk involved, particularly with such a small sample of books in NY. We should be careful about how we advise EAs to risk their money, as trust in the community is worth much more than a few thousand dollars.
Update: It turns out these sports books aren’t as friendly to non-US citizens as expected. I don’t know what every site’s policy is, but the following sites’ policies suggest that non-US citizens living outside the US shouldn’t bother looking into traveling to the US to do this:
Barstool – need valid SSN and US Passport / ID
Fanduel – need SSN and proof of US address
Tipico – must be US resident
BetMGM – need US ID and proof of US address
Pointsbet – non-US passport acceptable, need proof of US address
Play Sugarhouse – need US ID and possibly SSN
Twinspires – must be US resident
Superbook – seems possible, non-US passport sufficient
Sure thing, it’ll look similar to the NJ list.
$400-600/hour and lower variance:
Barstool (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Fanduel (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Caesars (first bet on short odds, free bet on long odds), Tipico (both bets on short odds),
$150-300/hour and higher variance:
BetMGM (both bets on long odds), Pointsbet (both bets on long odds, pointsbet following other comment in this post and very high-variance for non-itemizers), Twinspires (both bets on long odds), Superbook (bet on long odds), BetFred (short odds on first bet, long odds on free bet).
$50-150/hour and high variance
Foxbet (both bets on long odds), Bally Bet (both bets on long odds), Play Maverick (bet on long odds), Elite Sportsbook (garbage software that will test your patience, bet on long odds)
$50-150/hour and low variance
Draftkings (the bet $5 win 280 free option), Wynnbet, BetRivers (you can bet both sides of the same game).
Not worth doing:
Betway (offer recently pulled), BetWildwood, BetMonarch, Circa, SBK, TheScore, Sky Ute, Sportsbetting.com, Playup (due to promotion downgrade), Maximbet (due to rollover increase),
Unfortunately a few of the best CO offers got pulled or downgraded since this post was written eight days ago (Maximbet: Down from a $2,000 deposit match with a 1x rollover to a $2,000 deposit match with a 3x rollover. WynnBet: Down from a $1,000 risk-free first bet to a “bet $10, earn $200 site credit win or lose.” Playup: Down from a $750 stake-returning deposit match $200 deposit match.)
This trend will probably continue as people like us take advantage of these offers, then never bet another dime. DraftKings used to offer a $5,000 risk-free first bet, Caesars used to offer a $5,000 risk-free first bet, Sports Illustrated used to offer a $7,500 risk free first bet. Nevertheless, there is still a lot of opportunity in CO!
Great clarification. What I meant to say was:
If the first bet unlocks the free bet whether it wins or loses, you should make the first bet on short odds (because you unlock the free bet regardless of outcome, and bets with shorter odds have lower variance and lower expected tax liability) but make the free bet on long odds (because the EV is higher the longer the odds for free bets that do not return their stake).
In the case that you have to lose your first bet to unlock the free bet, but the free bet returns the stake, the first bet should be made using long odds (to allow you to unlock the free bet as often as possible) but the free bet should be made using short odds (because bets that return the stake have the same EV regardless of odds, and shorter odds helps lower variance and expected tax liability.)
Yes, this was actually part of what I discussed with Robirahman yesterday. So the Pointsbet promo has two parts—one part is a $500 fixed odds risk free first bet for credit that doesn’t return the stake. For this part, you can just use OddsJam and look for the best long odds bets for both the initial bet and the site credit.
The second part is a $1,500 PointsBet. This is a gimmicky betting type that has a higher house edge. In a PointsBet, the amount by which your bet is right or wrong determines what multiple of your bet you win or owe. For example, if you bet $10 on a quarterback to throw for over 200 yards in a football game and they throw for 201 yards, you win $10 because they threw 1 yard more than the over, but if they throw for 205 yards, you win $50 because they threw 5 yards more than the over. Similarly, if the quarterback threw for 160 yards you would lose $400 since they threw for 40 yards below the betting line.
The best way to maximize your EV on the $1,500 risk free PointsBet is to find a hockey or soccer game where the betting line for a team is over 1 or 1.05 goals (or for a team’s first period/first half goals.) This way, if you lose your first bet, you lose the full $1,500. If you tried to bet $1,500 on the over 200 passing yards example I used earlier, PointsBet wouldn’t let you, since you stand to lose $300,000 if the quarterback threw for 0 yards. And if you bet a denomination lower than $1,500 (say $7.50,) most of the time you lose your bet you would not lose the full $1,500 and you would only be given a free bet of what you lost, which is only a fraction of the total promo value.
If you lose your first PointsBet, you be given site credit that does not return the stake that can be used on a fixed odds (normal) wager. Here, you can once again use OddsJam to find a great longshot as usual.
Let me know if anything is unclear, or whether there are other specific promos that you have questions about. I debated writing up a list of the best ways to game each promo, and what you have to keep an eye out for (like actually opting into FoxBet’s risk free bet through the promos page instead of through the account signup page) but I figured the post was long already and brevity would be more attractive to most readers.
I’ve discussed this idea with a few people. It’s unclear whether it is legal to send someone money for making online sports bets per the Wire Act. To my knowledge, if this is illegal no one has been convicted (similar to how playing online poker in certain states is grey-area illegal but the law has never been enforced).
I “may have” loaned two friends $15,000 to participate, but I’m not sure whether I’d be comfortable setting up an EA fund for this:
Even if there is a way to learn that this is completely legal, the risk to Effective Atruism’s image if just one participant became addicted to gambling through this funding may eliminate all expected gains.
There is a ton of trust required, and involving a loaner/contract lawyer’s time decreases $/hour of this project.
Someone strapped for cash seems less likely to itemize on their taxes (though I could certainly be wrong) and thus would make less from this.
I like your thought to scale this; EAs can raise more money by funding people they know and trust, so long as they do it discreetly and understand that there is some chance they are breaking the law.
I also think that by the standards of the best opportunities for direct work, $500/hour worth of impact is somewhat low. Per a call with Alex Holness-Tofts, community building at college campuses is conservatively estimated to create $80,000,000/year in impact, and phone banking during the 2020 election may have been worth as much as $9,000/hour. Right now, campaigning for Carrick Flynn likely does more good per hour than these sports bets. So I’m not sure how valuable it would be to have an EA institution push cash-strapped EAs to do this rather than something else.
I should also add: for risk-free first bet promos where the free bet returns the stake like Fanduel and Barstool, your first real-money bet should be at very long odds because a free bet that returns the stake is as good as cash (providing even more incentive to unlock the free bet as often as possible.)
A brilliant idea, both for community building and fundraising! I would want to help coordinate these trips in any way that I could; I just accepted a role at Open Phil and I plan to lean on their network, but I would also love to connect with more EAs from all over to scale this idea up.
It’s funny that you mention this David, because Robi Rahman called me last night about best practices (which gave me great info for updating this post) and today he coached a group of 5 DC-residing EAs through this process in Virginia.
To anyone reading: please please message me if you want to organize a field trip and have any questions about the best way to go about it (from convincing people, to logistics, to real-time betting advice.)
Thank you Vivian, you’re absolutely right. I’ll update the “qualifiers to participate” section to make this much clearer, especially for participants living in states with a small number of legalized online sports books.
Hey Matt, it’s awesome that you two are interested in participating! Here are the promos I’d recommend doing in NJ grouped by EV/hour for those taking the standard deduction:
$400-600/hour and lower variance:
Barstool (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Fanduel (first bet on long odds, free bet on short odds), Caesars (first bet on short odds, free bet on long odds), Tipico (both bets on short odds),
$150-300/hour and higher variance:
BetMGM (both bets on long odds), Pointsbet (both bets on long odds, pointsbet following other comment in this post), Wynnbet (both bets on long odds), PlaySugarshouse (bet on short odds), Playup (bet on short odds), Twinspires (both bets on long odds), Superbook (bet on long odds).
$50-150/hour and high variance
Foxbet (both bets on long odds),
$50-150/hour and low variance
Bet365, Draftkings (the bet $5 win 280 free option), Golden Nugget (first bet short odds, free bet long odds)
Not worth doing:
Betway, Borgata, Hard Rock, TheScore, Unibet, Resorts Sportsbook
Great point Kasey, and the tax rate for gambling winnings is actually just your marginal tax rate, but sportsbooks will withhold 24% for people who win 30x their stake on a given bet. This is a good resource for taxes in sports betting.
This shows how new I am to the forum! Had I found the other post I probably would have just answered some of the questions in the comments rather than posting myself. Thank you for sharing.
Thank you for the thoughtful writeup! I knew very little about PhD programs before coming across this post—now I feel like I have the lay of the land :)
It seems like the GRE isn’t a dealbreaker for getting a PhD, but for anyone interested in 80⁄20′ing their GRE prep I’ll shamelessly bump my GRE advice post (thanks to Robi Rahman for his help)!
To me it seems likely that the majority of good opportunities will still be around in June. If there is something like $7,500 promo EV up for grabs in NJ now, I would estimate with 70% certainty there will be more than $4,000 promo EV by June.
One wrinkle I want to make sure you’re aware of is that creating, funding, betting with, and withdrawing from ~ 17 accounts will take a significant amount of time and needs to happen over the span of at least 4 days (for your promo credit to post, and for any withdrawal follow-ups to register. I recommend staying for 5+ days and starting this process the day you arrive.)My best guess is that having never done this, you’ll need to spend 15 hours to complete every worthwhile promo. If you’ve got a full schedule on your NYC trip (especially including time commuting to/from NJ), it may be best to schedule a separate trip. If you have some time but not the full 15 hours, maybe the best course of action is to do only the best offers and accept higher variance with a smaller sample size.
When I bet with SI it was similar to DraftKings, but now they’ve changed the promo to be a bit worse for those taking the standard deduction. You have to place 30 $10 bets to unlock 30 $10 free bets that do not return they’re stake
Strategy should be short odds for the cash bets, long odds for the free bets. Still worth doing, just a bit cumbersome. Thanks for spotting that!
Napkin math says no if you’re taking standard deduction but yes if you’re itemizing. Promo EV is about $1600, and you have to place $6,000 worth of bets to unlock it, so if your bets outperform a ~27% loss rate, this is profitable.
Be sure that the cash bets you place are no shorter than −200 odds because −200 is the minimum odds to qualify towards to rollover requirement. Also, the bet you place with the site credit should be on long odds because the free bet does not return its stake.
Thanks for writing this, Elijah. I agree that it’s really difficult to get an “EA job” (it took me five years). I wish this felt more normalized, and that there was better scoped advice on what EA jobseekers should do. I wrote about this last year and included a section on ways to contribute directly to EA projects even without an EA job. I’d also recommend Aaron Gertler’s post on recovering from EA job rejection, probably my favorite ever EA Forum post.
On Aaron Bergman’s comment about finding a higher paying role, certain tipped positions can be surprisingly lucrative and require very little training. Dealing poker pays $40-60/hour (tips + min wage) in the Seattle area, and I’ve heard that some high stakes baccarat dealing jobs in the greater Seattle area pay $200-400k/year (also tips + min wage) for 40 hour weeks. I imagine bartending jobs at pricey/busy bars would be a similar story, as would waiting tables at expensive restaurants (perhaps an upscale vegetarian/vegan spot).
You may find that substitute teaching and working special education students is more fulfilling than these types of jobs; I think it was a great decision to withdraw your application from a job that may have triggered loneliness-induced depression. You shouldn’t feel compelled to take a job you’ll dislike in order to give more, but hopefully there are small steps you can take to grow your lifetime impact without sacrificing your happiness. Some ideas could be:
Looking at higher education, certifications, coding bootcamps, training programs or apprenticeships to have a better shot at more lucrative or impactful work.
It may be tough to afford the fees or time off work right now. If so, consider investing in yourself by saving up some money you would have donated. In expectation, you’ll be able to help more animals in the long run by doing so.
Reaching out to Probably Good or 80,000 hours for careers advising. It’s completely OK if this doesn’t lead to a career call, it’s still a good idea to apply in expectation.
Talking to friends and family who have jobs or connections to jobs you would be interested in and seeing what they’d recommend.
You might set a goal of making a little progress each month, be that applying to a few jobs, asking for advice from other EAs, or getting closer to a new skill or credential, as an intermediate step to growing the impact you’ll be able to have five years from now. If you want someone to spitball with to kick things off, I’m happy to be that person https://calendly.com/sam-anschell/30min
Careers are long, and the impact one can have at the beginning of their career is usually a rounding error compared to what they can do later in their career anyway. I hope you remain ambitious about the difference you can make for animals, and proud of the good you’ve already done :)