Re (1) See When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts (2016) and the 2022 updated version. These surveys don’t ask about x-risk scenarios in detail, but do ask about the overall probability of very bad outcomes and other relevant factors.
Re (1) and (3), you might be interested in various bits of research that GovAI has done on the American public and AI researchers.
You also might want to get in touch with Noemi Dreksler, who is working on surveys at GovAI.
Thanks for putting this together!
I’m surprised by the combination of the following two survey results:
and
That is: on average, fellows claim they learned to do better research, but became no more comfortable pursuing a research project.
Do you think this is mostly explained by most fellows already being pretty comfortable with research?
A scatter plot of comfort against improvement in research skill could be helpful to examine different hypotheses (though won’t be possible with the current data, given how the “greatest value adds” question was phrased.