Great post, thanks for writing this up! I’m especially impressed by the compilation and description of different types of motivating emotions, seems quite comprehensive and very relatable to me.
I have one question about a minor-ish point you make:
“This isn’t the case for everyone: some people may arrive at EA following a series of rational arguments void of strong emotional appeals.”
I’ve been wondering about that sort of reasoning quite a bit in the past (often in response to something an EA-minded person said). How can you arrive at EA-ish conclusions and goals solely through a serious of rational arguments? Do you not need emotions to feature at some point in order to define and justify how and why you seek to “make the world a better place”? (In other words: How can you arrive at the “ought” solely through rational argument?)
I’m not an expert on the topic and don’t have sources on hand that would make the argument in greater detail, but I did take a course on ‘The global nuclear regime’ (broadly about institutional developments surrounding nuclear material and weapons control since 1945) and based on my knowledge from that, I’d suggest that there is a way to reconcile the two sets of claims.
First, I think it’s important to distinguish between ‘surprise attack’ and ‘first strike’. The former is obviously a subset of the latter, but there are also other conceivable kinds of first strike attacks. Surprise attack, to me, sounds like an attack that is launched without an immediate trigger, with the purpose of hitting (and eliminating or severly weakening) an adversary unexpectedly. A nuclear first strike might, instead, be considered in a situation where a conflict is escalading to a point that a nuclear strike by the other party seems to be growing more likely. It might be considered as an instrument to prevent the other party from launching their missiles by hitting them first (e.g. because the costs of waiting for them to launch before counter-striking are considered unacceptable). This comes down to definitions, ultimately, but I think I wouldn’t describe such a first strike as a surprise attack.
Second, there is not necessarily a contradiction between there being plans for first- rather than second-strike attacks and US officials expressing doubts about the USSR’s belief in US willingness to actually conduct a first strike. The US figures you mention might have thought that in that moment, the likelihood of a US first-strike was really low and that hence it would’ve been surprising for the USSR to start the detection project at that moment. These US figures might also have been disingenious or biased when assessing the honesty of the USSR leadership (I would argue that the tendency to attach hidden, often propagandistics, motives to ‘enemy leaders’ - without strong evidence base or even a coherent plausibility argument as support—is fairly common among US ‘hawks’). Debending on who the key US figures mentioned in your summary are (unfortunately, I haven’t read The Dead Hand), it might also be that they just weren’t aware of the first strike plans of the US. Lastly (and I don’t consider that one super likely), it might be that the US figures just thought that the Soviet leadership wouldn’t expect a US first strike in spite of the plans for it (either because the Soviets didn’t know about the plans, or because they didn’t think the US was likely to act on them).