Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Nov 28, 2023, 4:25 PM

  5 points

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: Moritz Stumpe 🔸’s comment on: GWWC’s eval­u­a­tions of evaluators

  Hi Moritz, yes if you ask me personally, I would currently lean towards recommending MG over a randomly picked ACE recommended charity, though I’m far from confident in this /​ it’s not a claim I would be able to justify to the extent we usually want to justify our recommendations as GWWC. It’s mainly based on my view that the difference between the AWF and MG is fairly small (both are broadly trying to make cost-effective grants and are getting promising applications on the margin), whereas our criticism of ACE’s charity evaluations process a bit more fundamentally challenges it coming up with highly cost-effective donation opportunities on the margin (though I also don’t want to overstate our conclusion there). I would furthermore guess that MG is/​will be more funding-constrained relative to its aims/​applications than most of ACE’s individual charity recommendations. (but really, this is a guess: note that I haven’t looked into the charity recommendations individually!)

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Nov 28, 2023, 4:13 PM

  2 points

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: anon animals’s comment on: GWWC’s eval­u­a­tions of evaluators

  Thanks for your question!

  The important nuance here is that while we did not think ACE’s current charity evaluation process measures marginal cost-effectiveness to a sufficient extent to directly rely on ACE’s recommendations, that isn’t the same as the (stronger) claim that its recommendations are necessarily worse donation opportunities than the AWF or THL’s corporate campaigns, and it also isn’t the same as claiming that ACE’s process doesn’t track marginal cost-effectiveness at all.

  We can’t say confidently how ACE’s (other) recommendations compare to the AWF or THL’s corporate campaigns, as we haven’t individually evaluated and compared them. So we want to offer donors who have the time and expertise to look into these promising individual charities the opportunity to do so and potentially donate to them if they find them to be maximising impact by their worldview, as we do for many more charities and funds on our platform that we can’t currently justify recommending (for instance because they haven’t been evaluated (yet)).

  You may also be interested in our answer to this somewhat related question under the AMA post.

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Nov 28, 2023, 3:51 PM

  1 point

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: Peter Wildeford’s comment on: GWWC’s eval­u­a­tions of evaluators

  Thank you, Peter, we’re obviously very happy to hear this!

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Nov 28, 2023, 3:17 PM

  10 points

  2 ∶ 0

  in reply to: JamesÖz 🔸’s comment on: GWWC’s eval­u­a­tions of evaluators

  So by default, GFI, Sinergia, Fish Welfare Initiative, Kafessiz and DVF were all excluded from potentially being identified (which seems illogical, as there is no obvious reason to think that charities evaluated in 2022 would be less cost-effective)

  Yes they were, as were any other charities than the three charities we asked ACE to send us more information on (based on where they thought they could make the strongest case by our lights). Among those, we think ACE provided the strongest case for THL’s corporate campaigns, and with the additional referral from Open Phil + the existing public reports by FP and RP on corporate campaigns, we think this is enough to justify a recommendation. This is what I meant by there indeed being a measurability bias in our recommendation (which we think is a bullet worth biting here!): we ended up recommending THL in large part because there was sufficient evidence of cost-effectiveness readily and publicly available. We don’t have the same evidence for any of these other charities, so they could in principle be as or even more cost-effective than THL (but also much less!), and without the evidence to support their case we don’t (yet) feel justified recommending them. We don’t have capacity to directly evaluate individual charities ourselves (including THL!), but continue to host many promising charities on our donation platform, so donors who have time to look into them further can choose to support them.

  To put this differently, the choice for us wasn’t between “evaluating all of ACE’s recommendations” and “evaluating only THL /​ three charities” (as we didn’t have capacity to do any individual charity evaluations). The choice for us was between “only recommending the AWF” and “recommending both the AWF and THL’s corporate campaigns” because there happened to already be sufficiently strong evidence/​evaluations available for THL’s corporate campaigns. For reasons explained earlier, we stand by our decision to prefer the latter over the former, even though that means that many other promising charities don’t have a chance to be recommended at this point (but note that this is the case in charity evaluation across cause areas!).

  Given you only looked at three of the ACE 2023 recommendations (and you didn’t say which ones), I’m wondering how you can make such a strong claim for all of ACE’s recommended charities?

  Could you clarify which “strong claim for all of ACE’s recommended charities” you are referring to? From the executive summary of our report on ACE:

  We also expect the gain in impact from giving to any ACE-recommended charity over giving to a random animal welfare charity is much larger than any potential further gain from giving to the AWF or THL’s corporate campaigns over any (other) ACE-recommended charity, and note that we haven’t evaluated ACE’s recommended charities individually, but only ACE’s evaluation process.

  On a slightly unrelated point: For the referral from OP, I would be curious to hear if you asked them “What is the most cost-effective marginal giving opportunity for farmed animal welfare” (to which they replied THL’s corporate campaigns) or something closer to “Do you think THL is a cost-effective giving opportunity on the margin?”

  The latter, because a referral by OP on its own wouldn’t have been sufficient for us to make a recommendation (as we haven’t evaluated OP): for recommending THL’s corporate campaigns, we really relied on these four separate pieces of evidence being available.

  I should have said “One of the top 2 marginal giving opportunities” but I still think I stand by my point that many experienced animal advocates would disagree with this claim, and it’s not clear that your charity recommendation work has sufficient depth to challenge that (e.g. you didn’t evaluate groups yourself), in which case it’s not clear why folks should defer to you over subject-matter experts (e.g. AWF, OP or ACE).

  We’re not even claiming it is one of the top 2 marginal giving opportunities, just that it is the best recommendation we can make to donors based on the information available to us from evaluators. If you could point us to any alternative well-justified recommendations/​evaluators for us to evaluate, we’d be all ears.

  And we don’t claim people should defer to us directly on charity evaluations (again, we don’t currently do these ourselves!). Ultimately, our recommendations (including THL!) are based on the recommendations of the subject-matter experts you reference. The purpose of our evaluations and reports is to help donors make better decisions based on the recommendations and information these experts provide.

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Nov 27, 2023, 7:36 PM

  26 points

  4 ∶ 2

  in reply to: JamesÖz 🔸’s comment on: GWWC’s eval­u­a­tions of evaluators

  Thanks for your comments and questions, James.

  Surely if you thought that EA AWF was a good evaluator or donation opportunity for donors, you would just let them manage the entirety of the fund? As then EA AWF would be able to distribute to THL if they actually thought THL was the most effective use of funds on the margin. And if not, even better, as they can give to more effective opportunities.

  The short answer is “no”: we don’t think we can currently justify the claim that giving to the AWF is better than giving to THL’s corporate campaigns, or vice versa. We did indeed conclude from our evaluation that the AWF can likely use marginal funds cost-effectively, but that isn’t the same as deferring to them on all fronts (including because we also found significant room for improvement, as explained in the AWF report), nor does it imply the AWF is better at allocating extra capital than THL is.

  I’m also curious why you felt the need to recommend at least one competitive alternative to the AWF, when the AWF itself is a fairly diversified fund? Arguably, you marked ACE down for similar reasoning in your evaluation of their Movement Grants (that they were spreading their grants across many groups rather than focusing mostly on the most effective groups)

  Our goal is to provide recommendations to help donors maximise their impact from the perspective of a variety of worldviews, and it’s in that light that we decided to also recommend THL’s corporate campaigns: consider that someone else could have made an (I think justifiable) comment that is entirely the opposite of what you are saying, i.e. that we should only recommend THL because there we actually have some independent evidence of their intervention working and being highly cost-effective, which is lacking for many if not most of the projects the AWF funds (given the early stage of the AW charity evaluation space).

  We criticized ACE MG not for making grants to multiple groups but for doing so at the seeming expense of expected impact. As mentioned above, we don’t think THL’s corporate campaigns are a worse donation opportunity than the AWF, and we think there may be donors who think it’s more cost-effective in expectation, for instance because they put less weight on the individual judgement of grantmakers (or on our judgement in evaluating AWF to be a good donation opportunity!) and think the publicly available evidence for THL is stronger.

  Statements like this make me worry that this evaluation focused too much on the certainty of some positive impact, rather than maximising expected impact (i.e. measurability bias).

  I think you’re right to worry about this—I do as well! - as I would say there is some implicit measurability bias in our recommendations. Most notably, we ended up recommending THL’s corporate campaigns over other ACE recommendations not because we have strong evidence that they are a better donation opportunity than any other individual ACE recommendation, but because they are the only one where we think we have sufficient evidence to justify recommending them.

  However, this is importantly different from us prioritising certainty of some positive impact over maximum expected impact: THL’s corporate campaigns is our best guess donation opportunity to maximise expected impact (alongside the AWF). If we thought we could have easily justified any one of ACE’s other recommendations was better—or even just as good—from that perspective, we would have recommended them, but we currently can’t. And please note that “justifying” here isn’t about finding “certainty of positive impact”: we are looking for the expected value case (as we do for the AWF and our other recommendations as well).

  As mentioned in the comment above, you would struggle to find many experienced animal advocates who would confidently recommend THL as the single best marginal giving opportunity. In reality, they would likely either advocate for a spread of groups using different approaches or just simply give to a fund (e.g. EA AWF or ACE).

  This is a much stronger claim than we are making (THL’s corporate campaigns being the “single best marginal giving opportunity”): we think it’s one of the two best donation opportunities we can, from the information we have available, recommend to a broad set of donors to maximise their expected impact. We are not claiming that nobody could do better (certainly by their individual values/​worldview!), and encourage donors to do their own (further) research if they have the time and expertise available. This is also why we host a broader selection of promising programs donors can look into and support on our donation platform.

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Nov 27, 2023, 4:38 PM

  6 points

  1 ∶ 0

  in reply to: lauren_mee’s comment on: AMA: GWWC re­search team

  Thanks Lauren for your question, and thanks Vasco for helping to answer it! I’ve replied to the comment under the post on our evaluations that I believe you’re referring to, and am happy to elaborate on any part of my answer there (and what’s in the report /​ what Vasco shared) if helpful.

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Nov 27, 2023, 4:28 PM

  4 points

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: leillustrations🔸’s comment on: AMA: GWWC re­search team

  We explain more how we view funds vs charities more generally here.

  And for the GWWC cause area funds we answer your question for each individual fund on their page, e.g. here for the Global Health and Wellbeing Fund, under “How does donating to this fund compare to similar giving opportunities?”.

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Nov 27, 2023, 4:01 PM

  4 points

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: leillustrations🔸’s comment on: AMA: GWWC re­search team

  Thanks for your question! We explain the general principles we used to choose which evaluator to investigate here, and go into our specific considerations for each evaluator in their evaluation reports.

  For FP’s GCR Fund compared to LTFF and LLF specifically, some of the main considerations were (1) our donors had so far been donating most to the LTFF, so the stakes were higher there, and (2) Longview was one of the most-named options by other effective giving organisations as an evaluator they weren’t relying on yet but were interested in learning more about.

  And yes there are other evaluators we’ve considered and are considering for future evaluations, some of which we mention throughout the reports. See here for an overview of the impact-focused evaluators making publicly available recommendations that we are currently aware of, and which we may consider in our next iterations of this project.

GWWC’s new recom­men­da­tions and cause area funds

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Nov 24, 2023, 10:11 AM

  58 points

  6 ∶ 0

  in reply to: mildlyanonymous’s comment on: GWWC’s eval­u­a­tions of evaluators

  First of all, thank you for the extensive comments!

  I can give more context during our AMA next week if helpful (I won’t have much time to engage in the coming few days unfortunately), but wanted to just quickly react to avoid a misunderstanding about our views here. I’ve copy-pasted from the relevant section from the report below:

  To be clear, there are strong limitations to this recommendation:

  • We didn’t ourselves evaluate THL’s work directly, nor did we compare it to other charities (e.g., ACE’s other recommendations).

  • The availability of evidence here may be high relative to other interventions in animal welfare, but is still low compared to interventions we recommend in global health and wellbeing. We haven’t directly evaluated Open Philanthropy, Rethink Priorities, or Founders Pledge as evaluators.

  • We have questions about the external validity of the evidence for corporate campaigns, i.e. whether they are as cost-effective when applied in new contexts (e.g. low- and middle-income countries in Africa) as they seem to have been where the initial evidence was collected (mainly in the US and Europe).

  • We also have questions about the extent to which the evidence for corporate campaigns is out of date, as the Founders Pledge and Rethink Priorities reports are from more than four years ago and we would expect there to be diminishing returns to corporate campaigns over time, as the “low-hanging fruits” in terms of cost-effectiveness are picked first.

  Taken together, all of this means we expect funding THL’s current global corporate campaigns to be (much) less cost-effective than the corporate campaigns in 2016-2017, which were evaluated in those reports.^1
  
  ^1 It is worth noting that Open Philanthropy confirmed to us that it thinks so as well: its referral is not a claim that funding THL’s corporate campaigns will be exactly as cost-effective as it probably was a couple of years ago, when THL achieved big wins on a small budget, but a claim that funding them is likely still among the most cost-effective options in the space, and that THL can productively use a lot of extra funding without strongly diminishing marginal returns to funding currently provided.

  So in short, we share your impression that THL’s work is (much) less cost-effective than it was a few years ago. We are aware of Open Phil’s views on this, and their referral of THL’s work to us took these diminished expected returns into account. The FP and RP reports weigh (much) less heavily in our recommendation of THL’s current work than ACE’s and OP’s recommendations, but we think those reports still provide a useful (and publicly accessible) reference on corporate campaigns as an intervention more generally.
  

  What links here?

  • Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸's comment on AMA: GWWC re­search team by Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸 (Nov 27, 2023, 4:38 PM; 6 points)

AMA: GWWC re­search team

GWWC’s eval­u­a­tions of evaluators

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Oct 18, 2023, 6:20 AM

  1 point

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: Arvin’s comment on: The role of effec­tive giv­ing in effec­tive al­tru­ism (MCF memo)

  Yes that’s right, thanks Arvin!

Five in­ter­ven­tions to strengthen a prin­ci­ples-based EA (MCF 2023 memo)

The role of effec­tive giv­ing in effec­tive al­tru­ism (MCF 2023 memo)

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Aug 11, 2023, 9:47 AM

  15 points

  1 ∶ 0

  on: GWWC’s Han­dling of Con­flict­ing Fund­ing Bars

  For anyone reading this at a later time, we have now updated the status of our deworming charities in line with the above discussion and new research by Founders Pledge.

  The changes are as follows:

  • Unlimit Health (formerly “SCI”), Sightsavers, DWI → Top-Rated

  • The END Fund to remain listed.

  This is based on Founders Pledge’s new research (which is — at least right now — not public) and the ~3x GD bar we’re currently using internally for global health and wellbeing charities (but may update before this Giving Season).

  We’re going with FP’s recommendations here because GiveWell (understandably) have indicated they prefer us not to make charity recommendations based on their direct referral which don’t meet their criteria for top charity status (we may continue to link to their research on the deworming charity pages to provide context though), and as this is consistent with our current inclusion criteria — which again, we may update later this year after completing the first iteration of evaluating the evaluators.

  We’d like to thank Jeff again for his helpful suggestion and engagement with this issue.

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Jun 29, 2023, 3:24 PM

  2 points

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: Matt_Sharp’s comment on: Four claims about the role of effec­tive giv­ing in the EA community

  I don’t think one needs to be on a fulltime salary to be in a position to give, e.g. among the surveyed population I would expect many/​most of the people who are part-time employed (~12%), self-employed (~11%) and retired (~2%) to be able to do so. The majority of other respondents are students, for which the exceptions I refer to in the post can hold (but I wouldn’t be surprised if most of them would be in a position to give >10% as well).

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Jun 29, 2023, 3:07 PM

  2 points

  0 ∶ 1

  in reply to: Ubuntu’s comment on: Four claims about the role of effec­tive giv­ing in the EA community

  For example, as there are many situations in which starting to give >10% effectively will only trade off with (various levels of) personal comfort and not (in any significant way) with how well you are able to optimise your career for impact.

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Jun 29, 2023, 3:02 PM

  2 points

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: Michael_PJ’s comment on: Four claims about the role of effec­tive giv­ing in the EA community

  Yes I was making a weaker claim, along the lines of what Michael says. I don’t have a strong view on EAG’s admission policy in particular (I think this is a tricky topic with many considerations).

  I do however stand by what I say in the recommendations section: “There can be clearer places to go in the EA community for people who give effectively and significantly but aren’t currently in a position to change careers. For example, EA Global could feature more relevant content for them, or be more explicitly career-focused itself to make space for a separate conference/​event for this group.”

  I.e. I think EA Global could probably improve in communicating how it serves or doesn’t serve people for whom effective giving (currently) is their main pathway to impact.

• Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸Jun 23, 2023, 11:47 AM

  11 points

  3 ∶ 1

  in reply to: jackva’s comment on: Four claims about the role of effec­tive giv­ing in the EA community

  Thanks Johannes.

  I’m also unsure about that and eager to find out, which is part of the reason for writing this post. And if it were to turn out hardly anyone disagrees /​ none of these claims are controversial, I hope we’ll find a way to make the actual role of effective giving in the EA community more aligned with what we think it should be (incl. through interventions like the ones suggested above), because I don’t think we’re currently there!