“we block all factory farm expansions → people realize that we don’t want factory farmed products in the UK at all → public opinion shifts quickly → multiple policy changes are now simultaneously possible”
I think this ToC is much less clean than it sounds.
We block all factory farm expansions—somewhat unlikely. I don’t think you can’t block them on welfare grounds, you have to find some other reason to block an expansion like environmental grounds so each fight is unique and the chance of winning every time is consequently lower.
Note: there was a case, Animal Equality v North East Lincolnshire Council recently which Animal Equality claim sets president for animal welfare as a material consideration. They are wrong to claim this. The dispute wasn’t about whether or not animal welfare is capable of being a material consideration and so remarks regarding this point are obiter. The Council did not dispute the point (they won on other grounds). This is good, but it might be that the council chose not to dispute this for tactical reasons (I don’t know enough about planning law to say either way.)
People realize that we don’t want factory farmed products in the UK at all—seems like the strongest link to me. Generally people are already pretty anti-factory farming. However, they don’t realise so much of their food comes from factory farms. I think it is unclear how support for factory farming changes if people had to face the real consequences of not being able to access factory farmed products
We ban new factory farms, start working on closing/improving existing ones—Less likely than it sounds. In this world the public don’t like factory farming but they also probably don’t like higher food prices (no one does), less access to meat and dairy etc. Unlike gay marriage, the voter is faced with a tradeoff whereby they have to want a ban on factory farming more than they want low prices. This is a high bar but you then also have to convince politicians that this is the case (for example, despite lots of polling saying people are prepared to pay for higher welfare products, politicians are still reluctant to implement any measure than has a meaningful impact on food prices).
Ban low welfare imports—Very hard/impossible. As James points out, this may be practically speaking impossible if we sign the EU CVA in its current form or close to current form (which seems very likely)
I’m going to read this full article more carefully and post a more considered comment later on, but I wanted to get this in early as my contribution to the conversation which I hope this article produces (because I think its a great piece):
I think your portrayal of ‘short term pragmatism’ is a bit of a straw man. I don’t really recognise this view amongst the animal nonprofits that I speak to.
Yes, many people spend a lot of time talking about and thinking about winning the specific campaign that they are involved in right now (naturally), but those campaigns are usually tied into a longer term theory of victory which involves the end of factory farming.
It might be that there are differences in terms of how far away from that ultimate victory we are (a few decades or 50+ years for example) and so it might be that these specific campaigns feel too timid to some, but then we should be having a conversation about how we work our which timeline is more accurate and, therefore, what the appropriate level of ambition is.