Although note that you’ve compared 2015 money moved with projected 2016 costs. I think it’s probably more appropriate to compare them in the same year, which if the growth is indeed a doubling every year means the CEA budget is about half the size proportionally.
Overall it looks like meta-charity is in the vicinity of 5% of money moved. My personal (extremely uncertain) guess is that 5-10% would be about right for a movement in equilibrium, but that during rapid growth it’s better to be higher.
I understand how you’re both getting to these numbers and a ratio of around 5%. I’m trying to reconcile them with the fact that for example, Denise and I expect to give around 50% of our donations to meta-charities this year. For everyone like us, there need to be 9 comparably sized donors giving 0% to make the maths line up. But I don’t actually offhand know of anyone planning to give less than 5% to meta except some small donors who don’t want to split their donations. I understood EA donations to be relatively top-heavy, so those small donors shouldn’t affect things that drastically. So that suggests my circles are skewed in some way, but I’m not sure how.
All I can think of is that the really big donors give less than 5% (though not 0) to meta-charities and they skew the entire pool. But that doesn’t quite seem right either, e.g. Good Ventures donated $15m to Givewell charities in 2014 and Givewell operations were $3m total in that year. Annoyingly I can’t seem to find how much GV donated to GW for their operations that year, but I assume it was not significant less, and probably more, than 5% * $15m = $0.75m.
In any case, if it is the case that the low overall percentage is entirely due to a few large donors contributing low percentages to meta-charity, that still seems worth bearing in mind when you are actually in the process of fund-raising from relatively smaller donors (who are presumably the targets of this post). AFAIK they are already committing way more than 5% to meta-charity.
There’s a big pool of silent donors who give to GiveWell recommended charities. They don’t participate actively in the community so you never hear from them.
So I agree that if you care about “actively participating EAs” then the percentage who give to meta-charities is likely higher.
It’s not clear which figure is most relevant. It makes sense that the people most involved in the community are in the best relative position to support the EA orgs because they know the most about them. It also makes sense that the more persuaded people will be more inclined to support meta-charities. Finally, large donors should give more to startups because they have more time to research (and can specialise in being meta-charity donors); small donors should stick to GiveWell recommended charities. Overall, the large active EA donors should give above the 5% baseline to pull the overall ratio up.
My understanding was that the majority of Givewell donors have essentially nothing to do with EA whatsoever (though this seems to be changing by the sounds of the board meeting Sebastian mentioned linked to above). Is the claim that there’s an intermediate group who, say, have heard of and would identify with EA and donated to GW-recommended charities but don’t actively engage? That doesn’t sound crazy.
I agree with all of the latter points, but again my impression was that donations are already very top heavy. Some estimates that might help pin this disagreement more precisely:
What percentage of donations by dollars do you think come from people donating more than $30k annually?
What percentage do you think those people give to meta-charity?
If your answers are, say, 30% and 20%, that already gets you above 5%, and of course that’s a lower bound at this point.
On the silent donors, I’m not sure. If you’re giving a lot of money to a GiveWell recommended charity or you’re a member of GWWC, then functionally you’re an EA (in my definition). But I agree many of them might not explicitly identify as EAs. I do think there’s a significant intermediate group, but I’m not sure how many.
Perhaps more relevant, even if they don’t identify as EA, where the silent donors give is influenced by EA. So I think there’s still a good case for including them in the money moved.
If we can persuade a big group of people to give to AMF but not metacharities, then it makes sense to do that, and then for the people who are interested in giving to either give to meta charity.
Perhaps more relevant, even if they don’t identify as EA, where the silent donors give is influenced by EA. So I think there’s still a good case for including them in the money moved.
Can you explain why you’re thinking that they’re influenced by EA? It seems at least equally plausible that they’re influenced by GiveWell, which is distinct from most EA meta-orgs, and operates using a different model. Are you thinking that there’s another influence on them, like 80k or GWWC?
They’re influenced by GiveWell, and GiveWell is part of EA.
Or even if you don’t think GiveWell is part of EA, they’re very similar to EA in their approach, and many of the staff are explicitly EAs or supporters of EA. I think GiveWell has also been influenced by other groups in EA, though it’s hard to tell.
I agree that GiveWell could be considered part of EA. Ultimately I see that as a merely semantic question. My and I think AGB’s point is that the donors who follow GiveWell aren’t self-identified members of the “EA movement”, and aren’t giving because of EA outreach specifically. It appears that organizations doing EA outreach specifically get much more than 5% of the money donated by members of the “EA movement” who were inspired to give by those organizations.
Ah, I was trying to look at the ratio of meta-charity work to money being moved at the same time. Since meta-charities fundraise often a year in advance, then as a flow of donations the proportion should be higher.
I do think that “You should measure and give to the most effective measured charities” is a much easier sell than “You should try to understand which of the things we can’t measure well could be even better than the ones we can”, so my prior is that these numbers aren’t surprising. I don’t feel I have a good understanding of the community breakdown; I expect I interact way disproportionately with people who are on board with the second statement. This means my error bars on the kind of estimate that you ask Ben for are large, and they don’t have too much effect on my all-things-considered belief.
Although note that you’ve compared 2015 money moved with projected 2016 costs. I think it’s probably more appropriate to compare them in the same year, which if the growth is indeed a doubling every year means the CEA budget is about half the size proportionally.
Overall it looks like meta-charity is in the vicinity of 5% of money moved. My personal (extremely uncertain) guess is that 5-10% would be about right for a movement in equilibrium, but that during rapid growth it’s better to be higher.
I understand how you’re both getting to these numbers and a ratio of around 5%. I’m trying to reconcile them with the fact that for example, Denise and I expect to give around 50% of our donations to meta-charities this year. For everyone like us, there need to be 9 comparably sized donors giving 0% to make the maths line up. But I don’t actually offhand know of anyone planning to give less than 5% to meta except some small donors who don’t want to split their donations. I understood EA donations to be relatively top-heavy, so those small donors shouldn’t affect things that drastically. So that suggests my circles are skewed in some way, but I’m not sure how.
All I can think of is that the really big donors give less than 5% (though not 0) to meta-charities and they skew the entire pool. But that doesn’t quite seem right either, e.g. Good Ventures donated $15m to Givewell charities in 2014 and Givewell operations were $3m total in that year. Annoyingly I can’t seem to find how much GV donated to GW for their operations that year, but I assume it was not significant less, and probably more, than 5% * $15m = $0.75m.
In any case, if it is the case that the low overall percentage is entirely due to a few large donors contributing low percentages to meta-charity, that still seems worth bearing in mind when you are actually in the process of fund-raising from relatively smaller donors (who are presumably the targets of this post). AFAIK they are already committing way more than 5% to meta-charity.
There’s a big pool of silent donors who give to GiveWell recommended charities. They don’t participate actively in the community so you never hear from them.
So I agree that if you care about “actively participating EAs” then the percentage who give to meta-charities is likely higher.
It’s not clear which figure is most relevant. It makes sense that the people most involved in the community are in the best relative position to support the EA orgs because they know the most about them. It also makes sense that the more persuaded people will be more inclined to support meta-charities. Finally, large donors should give more to startups because they have more time to research (and can specialise in being meta-charity donors); small donors should stick to GiveWell recommended charities. Overall, the large active EA donors should give above the 5% baseline to pull the overall ratio up.
My understanding was that the majority of Givewell donors have essentially nothing to do with EA whatsoever (though this seems to be changing by the sounds of the board meeting Sebastian mentioned linked to above). Is the claim that there’s an intermediate group who, say, have heard of and would identify with EA and donated to GW-recommended charities but don’t actively engage? That doesn’t sound crazy.
I agree with all of the latter points, but again my impression was that donations are already very top heavy. Some estimates that might help pin this disagreement more precisely:
What percentage of donations by dollars do you think come from people donating more than $30k annually?
What percentage do you think those people give to meta-charity?
If your answers are, say, 30% and 20%, that already gets you above 5%, and of course that’s a lower bound at this point.
On the silent donors, I’m not sure. If you’re giving a lot of money to a GiveWell recommended charity or you’re a member of GWWC, then functionally you’re an EA (in my definition). But I agree many of them might not explicitly identify as EAs. I do think there’s a significant intermediate group, but I’m not sure how many.
Perhaps more relevant, even if they don’t identify as EA, where the silent donors give is influenced by EA. So I think there’s still a good case for including them in the money moved. If we can persuade a big group of people to give to AMF but not metacharities, then it makes sense to do that, and then for the people who are interested in giving to either give to meta charity.
Can you explain why you’re thinking that they’re influenced by EA? It seems at least equally plausible that they’re influenced by GiveWell, which is distinct from most EA meta-orgs, and operates using a different model. Are you thinking that there’s another influence on them, like 80k or GWWC?
They’re influenced by GiveWell, and GiveWell is part of EA.
Or even if you don’t think GiveWell is part of EA, they’re very similar to EA in their approach, and many of the staff are explicitly EAs or supporters of EA. I think GiveWell has also been influenced by other groups in EA, though it’s hard to tell.
I agree that GiveWell could be considered part of EA. Ultimately I see that as a merely semantic question. My and I think AGB’s point is that the donors who follow GiveWell aren’t self-identified members of the “EA movement”, and aren’t giving because of EA outreach specifically. It appears that organizations doing EA outreach specifically get much more than 5% of the money donated by members of the “EA movement” who were inspired to give by those organizations.
Ah, I was trying to look at the ratio of meta-charity work to money being moved at the same time. Since meta-charities fundraise often a year in advance, then as a flow of donations the proportion should be higher.
I do think that “You should measure and give to the most effective measured charities” is a much easier sell than “You should try to understand which of the things we can’t measure well could be even better than the ones we can”, so my prior is that these numbers aren’t surprising. I don’t feel I have a good understanding of the community breakdown; I expect I interact way disproportionately with people who are on board with the second statement. This means my error bars on the kind of estimate that you ask Ben for are large, and they don’t have too much effect on my all-things-considered belief.