I have made a number of prediction markets holding powerful people accountable[1]. Powerful people (and their friends) really can exert a lot of pressure with an angry email or dm (n = 2-5). If you are powerful, please consider how big your muscles are before you give pushback
I have quite thick skin, but I don’t know whether such people are going around dming everyone like this. Likewise, this is a flaw I sometimes have and I have learned to be very light tough on pushback to non-friends.
Strangely, the kinds of people (or their friends) who message me are often close enough to pay lip service to “good epistemic practices”.
It really isn’t very fun to hold powerful people accountable. I get little thanks for it and burn valuable relationship capital. If you are powerful you probably have to be a bit more careful than you think. Perhaps make this clear to your allies also.
I can’t deny I take some pleasure from it, it feels good to be a martyr, but I think it performs a good social function also. But many who criticise would, I think, say they are open to criticism or accountability. Seemingly however, only on their own terms.
Again. I likely have this flaw too. I’ve had at least one anon feedback that I pushed back too hard against criticism. It’s easy to do, and I do not want to behave like that.
I don’t know whether such people are going around dming everyone like this.
Presumably not, as most people are not going around creating crime prediction markets that dramatically raise the salience of an implicit accusation. From their point of view I can see their response as being extremely restrained—you are making probabilistic public accusations that will predictably make them look bad, no matter how low the market price, and they’re not responding publicly at all.
I have made many markets about important people, whether they will do crimes, whether things were crimes, whether there will be conflict, whether things will replicate or are accurate.
In at least 3 cases from people telling me it was extremely costly to this person or that person emotively or with blaming.
I don’t know exactly what markets you’re referring to, but have you considered that they could be right?
And maybe it’s worth the trade-off, but if you’re consistently applying the principle of “more information is always good”, you should want to know when people are annoyed or angry with you (although it might turn out that when you reflect you conclude that there are limits on this principle).
Holding powerful people accountable.
Reposted from a twitter thread.
I have made a number of prediction markets holding powerful people accountable[1]. Powerful people (and their friends) really can exert a lot of pressure with an angry email or dm (n = 2-5). If you are powerful, please consider how big your muscles are before you give pushback
I have quite thick skin, but I don’t know whether such people are going around dming everyone like this. Likewise, this is a flaw I sometimes have and I have learned to be very light tough on pushback to non-friends.
Strangely, the kinds of people (or their friends) who message me are often close enough to pay lip service to “good epistemic practices”.
It really isn’t very fun to hold powerful people accountable. I get little thanks for it and burn valuable relationship capital. If you are powerful you probably have to be a bit more careful than you think. Perhaps make this clear to your allies also.
I can’t deny I take some pleasure from it, it feels good to be a martyr, but I think it performs a good social function also. But many who criticise would, I think, say they are open to criticism or accountability. Seemingly however, only on their own terms.
Again. I likely have this flaw too. I’ve had at least one anon feedback that I pushed back too hard against criticism. It’s easy to do, and I do not want to behave like that.
I do not necessarily not endorse having created all these markets. In general I think the markets I create are good, but some I am unsure of.
Presumably not, as most people are not going around creating crime prediction markets that dramatically raise the salience of an implicit accusation. From their point of view I can see their response as being extremely restrained—you are making probabilistic public accusations that will predictably make them look bad, no matter how low the market price, and they’re not responding publicly at all.
Can you give an example of the sort of prediction market you’re referring to, or what kind of consequences there have been?
I have made many markets about important people, whether they will do crimes, whether things were crimes, whether there will be conflict, whether things will replicate or are accurate.
In at least 3 cases from people telling me it was extremely costly to this person or that person emotively or with blaming.
I don’t know exactly what markets you’re referring to, but have you considered that they could be right?
And maybe it’s worth the trade-off, but if you’re consistently applying the principle of “more information is always good”, you should want to know when people are annoyed or angry with you (although it might turn out that when you reflect you conclude that there are limits on this principle).