Standard reply is that a visible bet of this form would itself be sus and would act as a subsidy to the prediction market that means bets the other way would have a larger payoff and hence warrant a more expensive investigation. Though this alas does not work quite the same way on Manifold since it’s not convertible back to USD.
It is by us though. All bets are convertible to charity donations and a lot of effective organisations are on there. So for many EAs it’s effectively just cash.
Honest question: could betting on FTT have been modeled as a prediction market on FTX? (vaguely similar to stock, even with important differences)
I see many crypto tokens as bets on the value of X, and they have been very highly manipulated for the past ~8 years (at least), why would USD prediction markets be different?
Standard reply is that a visible bet of this form would itself be sus and would act as a subsidy to the prediction market that means bets the other way would have a larger payoff and hence warrant a more expensive investigation. Though this alas does not work quite the same way on Manifold since it’s not convertible back to USD.
It is by us though. All bets are convertible to charity donations and a lot of effective organisations are on there. So for many EAs it’s effectively just cash.
Golly, I didn’t even realize that.
Honest question: could betting on FTT have been modeled as a prediction market on FTX? (vaguely similar to stock, even with important differences)
I see many crypto tokens as bets on the value of X, and they have been very highly manipulated for the past ~8 years (at least), why would USD prediction markets be different?
Yes, I think so. And in that sense we were racing against a huge prediction market.