I believe there are a few serious flaws in your guesstimate model:
a year has 365.2421905 days, not 365.25. That’s not even rounded correctly!
Smiles per QALY should multiply days in a year with smiles in a good day, instead they are added. They don’t even have the same unit, how can you add them! Insanity!
the post’s karma is far outside of even your 99% interval
Everything else seems quite correct and I agree with your CIs and conclusions.
Thanks for your valuable critique! I’ve updated our model accordingly.
Must say that I should have been more skeptical when my calculation resulted in a post that’s worth 0.4 QALY. Now, after also raising our estimates for total Karma (wow!) we estimate our impact as 0.018 QALYs, which makes more sense.
Perfect! In the end the impact will of course be orders of magnitude higher, as a slightly better name of any particular organization will affect tens if not hundreds of thousands of people in the long run. And there may even be a tail chance of better names increasing the community’s stability and thus preventing collapse scenarios.
I think overall you really undersold your project with that guesstimate model only focusing on this post only, as if that was all there is to it.
I believe there are a few serious flaws in your guesstimate model:
a year has 365.2421905 days, not 365.25. That’s not even rounded correctly!
Smiles per QALY should multiply days in a year with smiles in a good day, instead they are added. They don’t even have the same unit, how can you add them! Insanity!
the post’s karma is far outside of even your 99% interval
Everything else seems quite correct and I agree with your CIs and conclusions.
Also, please find a new name for guesstimate.
Sorry, I’ve tried very hard but guesstimate is near perfection
Hmm, how about EYCTLEWTU (Estimates You Cannot Take Literally Even When They’re Unbiased)?
catchy!
How about Confidance, since guesstimate cells look like a dance floor to me
Thanks for your valuable critique! I’ve updated our model accordingly.
Must say that I should have been more skeptical when my calculation resulted in a post that’s worth 0.4 QALY. Now, after also raising our estimates for total Karma (wow!) we estimate our impact as 0.018 QALYs, which makes more sense.
Perfect! In the end the impact will of course be orders of magnitude higher, as a slightly better name of any particular organization will affect tens if not hundreds of thousands of people in the long run. And there may even be a tail chance of better names increasing the community’s stability and thus preventing collapse scenarios. I think overall you really undersold your project with that guesstimate model only focusing on this post only, as if that was all there is to it.
Yes. Clearly there is much more to this new organization than a single post.