My pet peeve about this argument is that the Shakers lasted from 1770 to the present (although now with just two elderly members). That’s nothing to sneeze at for a utopian movement—compare them to the longevity of many 1960s communes that produced plenty of babies.
I think there’s a lot to admire about the Shakers… I’m just pointing out that as a social movement they are dying out, probably in part due to their views about sex & child-rearing.
Catholicism, Islam, and Mormonism seem to be much more durable in the long run (at least so far).
We can expect that we can “convert” people much more cheaply/effectively than they could. At current margins, it almost certainly costs far less to create EAs by “converting” existing people than “creating” new people and raising them in an EA household in hopes that they will later become EA. EA already has far more “adherents” than Sharkerism did at its peak. Also, neither celibacy nor childlessness is a “plank” of EA.
If I may abstract a bit from the Shakerism example...
I agree that we should be able to “convert” people more cheaply than other movements could in the past. But that doesn’t mean EAs relatively lower fecundity couldn’t pose some issues for the LR sustainability of the movement.
The question of “can we sustain the movement over time?” is whether 1. we can convert other peoples children more effectively than competing ideologies can convert ours and 2. that we can do so enough to make up for our relatively lower birthrates.
(Assuming we don’t find a third way involving beings that don’t die).
Maybe we convert our way to a stable transmission of values across generations, but I’m a bit skeptical since I’m having a hard time imagining a specific instance of a value system that made up for a lower birth rate by having a higher conversion factor. Catholicism? Since the priests / monks were prohibited from having children?
Okay, but if affiliation with EA correlates with a reproductive rate that’s far below replacement level, then if EA succeeds in converting everyone to EA, humanity will die out.
Think on the margin. Once the cost of conversion is high, transmitting the ideology (and humanity) by child-rearing makes more sense. In general, there are plenty of ways for me to promote population growth and the ideology that don’t require me reproducing.
Among other things, this assumes that we know how to transmit the ideology via child-rearing and that we know how to switch from one reproductive strategy to another en masse.
If EA has the same plank as Shakerism, it probably doesn’t have a bright future...
My pet peeve about this argument is that the Shakers lasted from 1770 to the present (although now with just two elderly members). That’s nothing to sneeze at for a utopian movement—compare them to the longevity of many 1960s communes that produced plenty of babies.
I think there’s a lot to admire about the Shakers… I’m just pointing out that as a social movement they are dying out, probably in part due to their views about sex & child-rearing.
Catholicism, Islam, and Mormonism seem to be much more durable in the long run (at least so far).
We have much better communications technologies than the Shakers had.
I don’t follow how that’s relevant?
We can expect that we can “convert” people much more cheaply/effectively than they could. At current margins, it almost certainly costs far less to create EAs by “converting” existing people than “creating” new people and raising them in an EA household in hopes that they will later become EA. EA already has far more “adherents” than Sharkerism did at its peak. Also, neither celibacy nor childlessness is a “plank” of EA.
If I may abstract a bit from the Shakerism example...
I agree that we should be able to “convert” people more cheaply than other movements could in the past. But that doesn’t mean EAs relatively lower fecundity couldn’t pose some issues for the LR sustainability of the movement.
The question of “can we sustain the movement over time?” is whether 1. we can convert other peoples children more effectively than competing ideologies can convert ours and 2. that we can do so enough to make up for our relatively lower birthrates.
(Assuming we don’t find a third way involving beings that don’t die).
Maybe we convert our way to a stable transmission of values across generations, but I’m a bit skeptical since I’m having a hard time imagining a specific instance of a value system that made up for a lower birth rate by having a higher conversion factor. Catholicism? Since the priests / monks were prohibited from having children?
Big +1
Okay, but if affiliation with EA correlates with a reproductive rate that’s far below replacement level, then if EA succeeds in converting everyone to EA, humanity will die out.
Think on the margin. Once the cost of conversion is high, transmitting the ideology (and humanity) by child-rearing makes more sense. In general, there are plenty of ways for me to promote population growth and the ideology that don’t require me reproducing.
Among other things, this assumes that we know how to transmit the ideology via child-rearing and that we know how to switch from one reproductive strategy to another en masse.
Seem like pretty reasonable assumptions. If you thought that either was untrue, then this whole line of inquiry would seem self-defeating.