I really apprechiate seeing your credences and your reasoning. It was also cool to see Samotsvety forecast stagnation. It looks like Samotsvety also forecasted AI timelines and AI takeover risk—are you willing and able to provide those numbers as well?
We did do some forecasting of timelines and takeover based on the Carlsmith report, but the data isn’t recorded super well (and some people could only make some of the multiple sessions, etc.) which is why I was a bit vague in the post. Also the forecasts were for 2070 rather than 2100.
I’ll see if I can get some updated forecasts within the next week or so and get back to you.
I really apprechiate seeing your credences and your reasoning. It was also cool to see Samotsvety forecast stagnation. It looks like Samotsvety also forecasted AI timelines and AI takeover risk—are you willing and able to provide those numbers as well?
Glad the forecasts and reasoning were useful!
We did do some forecasting of timelines and takeover based on the Carlsmith report, but the data isn’t recorded super well (and some people could only make some of the multiple sessions, etc.) which is why I was a bit vague in the post. Also the forecasts were for 2070 rather than 2100.
I’ll see if I can get some updated forecasts within the next week or so and get back to you.
Just published some up-to-date forecasts here!
I’ll edit a link to these into the post soon but am getting an error right now when trying to edit.