Horizon Institute for Public Service is not x-risk-pilled
Someone saw my comment and reached out to say it would be useful for me to make a quick take/post highlighting this: many people in the space have not yet realized that Horizon people are not x-risk-pilled.
(Edit: some people reached out to me to say that they’ve had different experiences with a minority of Horizon people.)
“Is Horizon x-risk pilled?” feels like a misguided question. The organization doesn’t claim to be, and it would also be problematic if the organization were acting in an x-risk-pilled-way but but deceitful about it. I’m certainly confident that some Horizon people/fellows are personally x-risk-pilled, and some are not.
For x-risk-focused donors, I think the more reasonable question is: How much should we expect ‘expertise and aptitude around emerging tech policy’ (as Horizon interprets it) to correlate with the outcomes those donors care about? One could reasonably conclude that that correlation’s low or even negative. But it’s also not like there’s a viable counterfactual ‘X-risk-pilled Institute for Public Service’ that would achieve a similar level of success at placing fellows.
(I’d guess you might directionally agree with this and just think the correlation isn’t that high, but figured I’d comment to at least add the nuance).
Relatedly, @MichaelDickens shallow-reviewed Horizon just under a year ago—see here.[1] Tl;dr: Michael finds that Horizon’s work isn’t very relevant to x-risk reduction; Michael believes Horizon is net-negative for the world (credence: 55%).
(On the other hand, it was Eth, Perez and Greenblatt—i.e., people whose judgement I respect—who recommended donating to Horizon in that post Mikhail originally commented on. So, I overall feel unsure about what to think.)
I’ve seen a number of people I respect recommend Horizon, but I’ve never seen any of them articulate a compelling reason why they like it. For example in that comment you linked in the footnote, I found the response pretty unpersuasive (which is what I said in my follow-up comment, which got no reply). Absence of evidence is evidence of absence, but I have to weigh that against the fact that so many people seem to like Horizon.
A couple weeks ago I tried reaching out to Horizon to see if they could clear things up, but they haven’t responded. Although even if they did respond, I made it apparent that the answer I’m looking for is “yes Horizon is x-risk-pilled”, and I’m sure they could give that answer even if it’s not true.
Horizon Institute for Public Service is not x-risk-pilled
Someone saw my comment and reached out to say it would be useful for me to make a quick take/post highlighting this: many people in the space have not yet realized that Horizon people are not x-risk-pilled.
(Edit: some people reached out to me to say that they’ve had different experiences with a minority of Horizon people.)
“Is Horizon x-risk pilled?” feels like a misguided question. The organization doesn’t claim to be, and it would also be problematic if the organization were acting in an x-risk-pilled-way but but deceitful about it. I’m certainly confident that some Horizon people/fellows are personally x-risk-pilled, and some are not.
For x-risk-focused donors, I think the more reasonable question is: How much should we expect ‘expertise and aptitude around emerging tech policy’ (as Horizon interprets it) to correlate with the outcomes those donors care about? One could reasonably conclude that that correlation’s low or even negative. But it’s also not like there’s a viable counterfactual ‘X-risk-pilled Institute for Public Service’ that would achieve a similar level of success at placing fellows.
(I’d guess you might directionally agree with this and just think the correlation isn’t that high, but figured I’d comment to at least add the nuance).
Relatedly, @MichaelDickens shallow-reviewed Horizon just under a year ago—see here.[1] Tl;dr: Michael finds that Horizon’s work isn’t very relevant to x-risk reduction; Michael believes Horizon is net-negative for the world (credence: 55%).
(On the other hand, it was Eth, Perez and Greenblatt—i.e., people whose judgement I respect—who recommended donating to Horizon in that post Mikhail originally commented on. So, I overall feel unsure about what to think.)
See also ensuing discussion here.
I’ve seen a number of people I respect recommend Horizon, but I’ve never seen any of them articulate a compelling reason why they like it. For example in that comment you linked in the footnote, I found the response pretty unpersuasive (which is what I said in my follow-up comment, which got no reply). Absence of evidence is evidence of absence, but I have to weigh that against the fact that so many people seem to like Horizon.
A couple weeks ago I tried reaching out to Horizon to see if they could clear things up, but they haven’t responded. Although even if they did respond, I made it apparent that the answer I’m looking for is “yes Horizon is x-risk-pilled”, and I’m sure they could give that answer even if it’s not true.