Naively, $1.6B/$5k ~330k deaths averted[1]? Adjust down because some spending is less effective than AMF. Adjust up because of AMF cost/life inflation.
Is there solid on-the-ground evidence of this effect? annual worldwide malaria burden is on the order of 500k/year, at least in theory 330k total (reframed, 33k/year spread out across 10 years) should maybe be large enough to show up in the summary statistics if you do diff-in-diff studies etc.
A lot of this wouldn’t show up in malaria, e.g. last year 39% of GiveWell funds directed went to malaria programs. But yeah, still would be interested to see data.
What is our median estimate for how many lives EA global development has saved?
Naively, $1.6B/$5k ~330k deaths averted[1]? Adjust down because some spending is less effective than AMF. Adjust up because of AMF cost/life inflation.
(Or equivalent)
Is there solid on-the-ground evidence of this effect? annual worldwide malaria burden is on the order of 500k/year, at least in theory 330k total (reframed, 33k/year spread out across 10 years) should maybe be large enough to show up in the summary statistics if you do diff-in-diff studies etc.
A lot of this wouldn’t show up in malaria, e.g. last year 39% of GiveWell funds directed went to malaria programs. But yeah, still would be interested to see data.