(Obvious flag that I know very little about this specific industry)
Agreed that this seems like an important issue. Some quick takes:
Less immediately- obvious pluses/minuses to this sort of campaign: - Plus #1: I assume that anything the animal industry doesn’t like would increase costs for raising chickens. I’d correspondingly assume that we should want costs to be high (though it would be much better if it could be the government getting these funds, rather than just decreases in efficiency). - Plus #2: It seems possible that companies have been selecting for growth instead of for well-being. Maybe, if they just can’t select for growth, then selecting more for not-feeling-pain would be cheaper. - Minus #1: Focusing on the term “Frankenchicken” could discourage other selective breeding or similar, which could be otherwise useful for very globally beneficial attributes, like pain mitigation. - Ambiguous #1: This could help stop further development here. I assume that it’s possible to later use selective breeding and similar to continue making larger / faster growing chickens.
I think I naively feel like the pluses outweigh the negatives. Maybe I’d give this a 80% chance, without doing much investigation. That said, I’d also imagine there might well be more effective measures with a much clearer trade-off. The question of “is this a net-positive thing” is arguably not nearly as important as “are there fairly-clearly better things to do.”
Lastly, for all of that, I do want to just thanks those helping animals like this. It’s easy for me to argue things one way or the other, but I generally have serious respect for those working to change things, even if I’m not sure if their methods are optimal. I think it’s easy to seem combative on this, but we’re all on a similar team here.
In terms of a “rough fermi analysis”, as I work in the field, I think the numeric part of this is less important at this stage than just laying out a bunch of the key considerations and statistics. What I first want is a careful list of costs and benefits—that seems mature, fairly creative, and unbiased.
- Plus #1: I assume that anything the animal industry doesn’t like would increase costs for raising chickens. I’d correspondingly assume that we should want costs to be high (though it would be much better if it could be the government getting these funds, rather than just decreases in efficiency).
I think this feels like a very aggressive zero-sum mindset. I agree that sometimes you want to have an attitude like this, but I at least at the present think that acting with the attitude of “let’s just make animal industry as costly as possible” would understandable cause backlash, make it harder to come to agreements, and I think a reasonable justice system would punish people who do such things (even if they think they are morally in the right).
You asked for a “rough fermi estimate of the trade-offs”, I gave you a list of potential trade-offs.
If we’re willing to make decisions with logic like, “while genetically modifying unnaturally fast-growing chickens in factory farms would increase the pain of each one, perhaps the math works out so that there’s less pain overall”, I feel like adding considerations like, “this intervention will also make meat more expensive, which will reduce use” is a pretty vanilla consideration.
No, those are two totally separate types of considerations? In one you are directly aiming to work against the goals of someone else in a zero-sum fashion, the other one is just a normal prediction about what will actually happen?
You really should have very different norms about how you are dealing with adversarial considerations and how you are dealing with normal causal/environmental considerations. I don’t care about calling them “vanilla” or not, I think we should generally have a high prior against arguments of the form “X is bad, Y is hurting X, therefore Y is good”.
(Obvious flag that I know very little about this specific industry)
Agreed that this seems like an important issue. Some quick takes:
Less immediately- obvious pluses/minuses to this sort of campaign:
- Plus #1: I assume that anything the animal industry doesn’t like would increase costs for raising chickens. I’d correspondingly assume that we should want costs to be high (though it would be much better if it could be the government getting these funds, rather than just decreases in efficiency).
- Plus #2: It seems possible that companies have been selecting for growth instead of for well-being. Maybe, if they just can’t select for growth, then selecting more for not-feeling-pain would be cheaper.
- Minus #1: Focusing on the term “Frankenchicken” could discourage other selective breeding or similar, which could be otherwise useful for very globally beneficial attributes, like pain mitigation.
- Ambiguous #1: This could help stop further development here. I assume that it’s possible to later use selective breeding and similar to continue making larger / faster growing chickens.
I think I naively feel like the pluses outweigh the negatives. Maybe I’d give this a 80% chance, without doing much investigation. That said, I’d also imagine there might well be more effective measures with a much clearer trade-off. The question of “is this a net-positive thing” is arguably not nearly as important as “are there fairly-clearly better things to do.”
Lastly, for all of that, I do want to just thanks those helping animals like this. It’s easy for me to argue things one way or the other, but I generally have serious respect for those working to change things, even if I’m not sure if their methods are optimal. I think it’s easy to seem combative on this, but we’re all on a similar team here.
In terms of a “rough fermi analysis”, as I work in the field, I think the numeric part of this is less important at this stage than just laying out a bunch of the key considerations and statistics. What I first want is a careful list of costs and benefits—that seems mature, fairly creative, and unbiased.
I think this feels like a very aggressive zero-sum mindset. I agree that sometimes you want to have an attitude like this, but I at least at the present think that acting with the attitude of “let’s just make animal industry as costly as possible” would understandable cause backlash, make it harder to come to agreements, and I think a reasonable justice system would punish people who do such things (even if they think they are morally in the right).
I feel like that’s pretty unfair.
You asked for a “rough fermi estimate of the trade-offs”, I gave you a list of potential trade-offs.
If we’re willing to make decisions with logic like, “while genetically modifying unnaturally fast-growing chickens in factory farms would increase the pain of each one, perhaps the math works out so that there’s less pain overall”, I feel like adding considerations like, “this intervention will also make meat more expensive, which will reduce use” is a pretty vanilla consideration.
No, those are two totally separate types of considerations? In one you are directly aiming to work against the goals of someone else in a zero-sum fashion, the other one is just a normal prediction about what will actually happen?
You really should have very different norms about how you are dealing with adversarial considerations and how you are dealing with normal causal/environmental considerations. I don’t care about calling them “vanilla” or not, I think we should generally have a high prior against arguments of the form “X is bad, Y is hurting X, therefore Y is good”.