The long-term significance of reducing global catastrophic risksāNick Beckstead, 2015 (Beckstead never actually writes ācollapseā, but has very relevant discussion of probability of ārecoveryā and trajectory changes following non-extinction catastrophes)
Collection of sources that seem very relevant to the topic of civilizational collapse and/āor recovery
Civilization Re-Emerging After a CatastropheāKarim Jebari, 2019 (see also my commentary on that talk)
Civilizational Collapse: Scenarios, Prevention, ResponsesāDenkenberger & Ladish, 2019
Update on civilizational collapse researchāLadish, 2020 (personally, I found Ladishās talk more useful; see the above link)
Modelling the odds of recovery from civilizational collapseāMichael Aird (i.e., me), 2020
The long-term significance of reducing global catastrophic risksāNick Beckstead, 2015 (Beckstead never actually writes ācollapseā, but has very relevant discussion of probability of ārecoveryā and trajectory changes following non-extinction catastrophes)
How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe? - Nick Beckstead, 2015 (he also wrote a related EA Forum post)
Various EA Forum posts by Dave Denkenberger (see also ALLFEDās site)
Aftermath of Global CatastropheāGCRI, no date (this page has links to other relevant articles)
A (Very) Short History of the Collapse of Civilizations, and Why it MattersāDavid Manheim, 2020
A grant application from Ladish, and Oliver Habrykaās thoughts on it ā 2019
Civilisational collapse has a bright past ā but a dark futureāLuke Kemp, 2019
Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? - Luke Kemp, 2019
Civilization: Institutions, Knowledge and the FutureāSamo Burja, 2018
Secret of Our SuccessāHenrich, 2015 (not about collapse, but it has many relevant insights, in my opinion) (see also the Slate Star Codex review)
Is there a subfield of economics devoted to āfragility vs resilienceā? (and the answers there) - steve6320 and various commenters, 2020
I also have some as-yet unpublished work on collapse & recovery that Iām happy to share upon request.
Things about existential risk or GCRs more broadly, but with relevant parts
Toby Ord on the precipice and humanityās potential futures ā 2020 (the first directly relevant part is in the section on nuclear war)
The PrecipiceāOrd, 2020
Long-Term Trajectories of Human CivilizationāBaum et al., 2019 (the authors never actually write ācollapseā, but their section 4 is very relevant to the topic)
Towards Comprehensive Existential Risk Assessment: A Bayesian Network Model And Proposal For AssessmentāRozendal, 2019, working paper
Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All MatterāCotton-Barratt, Daniel, Sandberg, 2020
Existential Risk Strategy Conversation with Holden Karnofsky, Eliezer Yudkowsky, and Luke Muehlhauser ā 2014
Causal diagrams of the paths to existential catastropheāMichael Aird, 2020
Stuart Armstrong interview ā 2014 (the relevant section is 7:45-14:30)
Existential Risk Prevention as Global PriorityāBostrom, 2012
The Future of HumanityāBostrom, 2007 (covers similar points to the above paper)
How Would Catastrophic Risks Affect Prospects for Compromise? - Tomasik, 2013/ā2017
Crucial questions for longtermistsāMichael Aird, 2020
Things that sound relevant, but which I havenāt read/āwatched/ālistened to yet
Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human ExtinctionāRobin Hanson, 2007
The Fragile World Hypothesis: Complexity, Fragility, and Systemic Existential RiskāDavid Manheim,
Existential Risks: Exploring a Robust Risk Reduction StrategyāKarim Jebari, 2015
Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophesāTurchin & Green, 2018
Videos and slides from a Princeton Workshop on Historical Systemic Collapse ā 2019
Feeding Everyone No Matter What - Denkenberger & Pearce, 2014
Why and how civilisations collapseāKemp [CSER]
https://āāen.wikipedia.org/āāwiki/āāSocietal_collapse
https://āāen.wikipedia.org/āāwiki/āāCollapse:_How_Societies_Choose_to_Fail_or_Succeed [book]
https://āāen.wikipedia.org/āāwiki/āāThe_Knowledge:_How_to_Rebuild_Our_World_from_ScratchāDartnell [book] (thereās also this TEDx Talk by the author, but I didnāt find that very useful from a civilizational collapse perspective)
The Collapse of Complex SocietiesāJoseph Tainter, 1988
1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization CollapsedāEric Cline, 2014
On Collapse Risk (C-Risk) - Pawntoe4, 2020
I intend to add to this list over time. If you know of other relevant work, please mention it in a comment.
Guns, Germs, and SteelāI felt this provided a good perspective on the ultimate factors leading up to agriculture and industry.
Great, thanks for adding that to the collection!
Suggested by a member of the History and Effective Altruism Facebook group:
https://āāscholars-stage.blogspot.com/āā2019/āā07/āāa-study-guide-for-human-society-part-i.html
Disputers of the Tao, by A. C. Graham
See also the book recommendations here.