Civilization Re-Emerging After a Catastrophe—Karim Jebari, 2019 (see also my commentary on that talk)
Civilizational Collapse: Scenarios, Prevention, Responses—Denkenberger & Ladish, 2019
Update on civilizational collapse research—Ladish, 2020 (personally, I found Ladish’s talk more useful; see the above link)
Modelling the odds of recovery from civilizational collapse—Michael Aird (i.e., me), 2020
The long-term significance of reducing global catastrophic risks—Nick Beckstead, 2015 (Beckstead never actually writes “collapse”, but has very relevant discussion of probability of “recovery” and trajectory changes following non-extinction catastrophes)
How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe? - Nick Beckstead, 2015 (he also wrote a related EA Forum post)
Various EA Forum posts by Dave Denkenberger (see also ALLFED’s site)
Aftermath of Global Catastrophe—GCRI, no date (this page has links to other relevant articles)
A (Very) Short History of the Collapse of Civilizations, and Why it Matters—David Manheim, 2020
A grant application from Ladish, and Oliver Habryka’s thoughts on it − 2019
Civilisational collapse has a bright past – but a dark future—Luke Kemp, 2019
Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? - Luke Kemp, 2019
Civilization: Institutions, Knowledge and the Future—Samo Burja, 2018
Secret of Our Success—Henrich, 2015 (not about collapse, but it has many relevant insights, in my opinion) (see also the Slate Star Codex review)
Is there a subfield of economics devoted to “fragility vs resilience”? (and the answers there) - steve6320 and various commenters, 2020
I also have some as-yet unpublished work on collapse & recovery that I’m happy to share upon request.
Things about existential risk or GCRs more broadly, but with relevant parts
Toby Ord on the precipice and humanity’s potential futures − 2020 (the first directly relevant part is in the section on nuclear war)
The Precipice—Ord, 2020
Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization—Baum et al., 2019 (the authors never actually write “collapse”, but their section 4 is very relevant to the topic)
Towards Comprehensive Existential Risk Assessment: A Bayesian Network Model And Proposal For Assessment—Rozendal, 2019, working paper
Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter—Cotton-Barratt, Daniel, Sandberg, 2020
Existential Risk Strategy Conversation with Holden Karnofsky, Eliezer Yudkowsky, and Luke Muehlhauser − 2014
Causal diagrams of the paths to existential catastrophe—Michael Aird, 2020
Stuart Armstrong interview − 2014 (the relevant section is 7:45-14:30)
Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority—Bostrom, 2012
The Future of Humanity—Bostrom, 2007 (covers similar points to the above paper)
How Would Catastrophic Risks Affect Prospects for Compromise? - Tomasik, 2013/2017
Crucial questions for longtermists—Michael Aird, 2020
Things that sound relevant, but which I haven’t read/watched/listened to yet
Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction—Robin Hanson, 2007
The Fragile World Hypothesis: Complexity, Fragility, and Systemic Existential Risk—David Manheim,
Existential Risks: Exploring a Robust Risk Reduction Strategy—Karim Jebari, 2015
Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophes—Turchin & Green, 2018
Videos and slides from a Princeton Workshop on Historical Systemic Collapse − 2019
Feeding Everyone No Matter What - Denkenberger & Pearce, 2014
Why and how civilisations collapse—Kemp [CSER]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse:_How_Societies_Choose_to_Fail_or_Succeed [book]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Knowledge:_How_to_Rebuild_Our_World_from_Scratch—Dartnell [book] (there’s also this TEDx Talk by the author, but I didn’t find that very useful from a civilizational collapse perspective)
The Collapse of Complex Societies—Joseph Tainter, 1988
1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed—Eric Cline, 2014
On Collapse Risk (C-Risk) - Pawntoe4, 2020
I intend to add to this list over time. If you know of other relevant work, please mention it in a comment.
Guns, Germs, and Steel—I felt this provided a good perspective on the ultimate factors leading up to agriculture and industry.
Great, thanks for adding that to the collection!
Suggested by a member of the History and Effective Altruism Facebook group:
https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2019/07/a-study-guide-for-human-society-part-i.html
Disputers of the Tao, by A. C. Graham
See also the book recommendations here.
Collection of sources that seem very relevant to the topic of civilizational collapse and/or recovery
Civilization Re-Emerging After a Catastrophe—Karim Jebari, 2019 (see also my commentary on that talk)
Civilizational Collapse: Scenarios, Prevention, Responses—Denkenberger & Ladish, 2019
Update on civilizational collapse research—Ladish, 2020 (personally, I found Ladish’s talk more useful; see the above link)
Modelling the odds of recovery from civilizational collapse—Michael Aird (i.e., me), 2020
The long-term significance of reducing global catastrophic risks—Nick Beckstead, 2015 (Beckstead never actually writes “collapse”, but has very relevant discussion of probability of “recovery” and trajectory changes following non-extinction catastrophes)
How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe? - Nick Beckstead, 2015 (he also wrote a related EA Forum post)
Various EA Forum posts by Dave Denkenberger (see also ALLFED’s site)
Aftermath of Global Catastrophe—GCRI, no date (this page has links to other relevant articles)
A (Very) Short History of the Collapse of Civilizations, and Why it Matters—David Manheim, 2020
A grant application from Ladish, and Oliver Habryka’s thoughts on it − 2019
Civilisational collapse has a bright past – but a dark future—Luke Kemp, 2019
Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? - Luke Kemp, 2019
Civilization: Institutions, Knowledge and the Future—Samo Burja, 2018
Secret of Our Success—Henrich, 2015 (not about collapse, but it has many relevant insights, in my opinion) (see also the Slate Star Codex review)
Is there a subfield of economics devoted to “fragility vs resilience”? (and the answers there) - steve6320 and various commenters, 2020
I also have some as-yet unpublished work on collapse & recovery that I’m happy to share upon request.
Things about existential risk or GCRs more broadly, but with relevant parts
Toby Ord on the precipice and humanity’s potential futures − 2020 (the first directly relevant part is in the section on nuclear war)
The Precipice—Ord, 2020
Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization—Baum et al., 2019 (the authors never actually write “collapse”, but their section 4 is very relevant to the topic)
Towards Comprehensive Existential Risk Assessment: A Bayesian Network Model And Proposal For Assessment—Rozendal, 2019, working paper
Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter—Cotton-Barratt, Daniel, Sandberg, 2020
Existential Risk Strategy Conversation with Holden Karnofsky, Eliezer Yudkowsky, and Luke Muehlhauser − 2014
Causal diagrams of the paths to existential catastrophe—Michael Aird, 2020
Stuart Armstrong interview − 2014 (the relevant section is 7:45-14:30)
Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority—Bostrom, 2012
The Future of Humanity—Bostrom, 2007 (covers similar points to the above paper)
How Would Catastrophic Risks Affect Prospects for Compromise? - Tomasik, 2013/2017
Crucial questions for longtermists—Michael Aird, 2020
Things that sound relevant, but which I haven’t read/watched/listened to yet
Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction—Robin Hanson, 2007
The Fragile World Hypothesis: Complexity, Fragility, and Systemic Existential Risk—David Manheim,
Existential Risks: Exploring a Robust Risk Reduction Strategy—Karim Jebari, 2015
Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophes—Turchin & Green, 2018
Videos and slides from a Princeton Workshop on Historical Systemic Collapse − 2019
Feeding Everyone No Matter What - Denkenberger & Pearce, 2014
Why and how civilisations collapse—Kemp [CSER]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse:_How_Societies_Choose_to_Fail_or_Succeed [book]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Knowledge:_How_to_Rebuild_Our_World_from_Scratch—Dartnell [book] (there’s also this TEDx Talk by the author, but I didn’t find that very useful from a civilizational collapse perspective)
The Collapse of Complex Societies—Joseph Tainter, 1988
1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed—Eric Cline, 2014
On Collapse Risk (C-Risk) - Pawntoe4, 2020
I intend to add to this list over time. If you know of other relevant work, please mention it in a comment.
Guns, Germs, and Steel—I felt this provided a good perspective on the ultimate factors leading up to agriculture and industry.
Great, thanks for adding that to the collection!
Suggested by a member of the History and Effective Altruism Facebook group:
https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2019/07/a-study-guide-for-human-society-part-i.html
Disputers of the Tao, by A. C. Graham
See also the book recommendations here.