Some ideas for projects to improve the long-term future
In January, I spent ~1 hour trying to brainstorm relatively concrete ideas for projects that might help improve the long-term future. I later spent another ~1 hour editing what I came up with for this shortform. This shortform includes basically everything I came up with, not just a top selection, so not all of these ideas will be great. Iām also sure that my commentary misses some important points. But I thought it was worth sharing this list anyway.
The ideas vary in the extent to which the bottleneck(s) to executing them are the right person/āpeople, buy-in from the right existing organisation, or funding.
Iām not expecting to execute these ideas in the near-term future myself,so if you think one of these ideas sounds promising and relevant to your skills, interests, etc., please feel very free to explore the idea further, to comment here, and/āor to reach out to me to discuss it!
Something along the lines of compiling a large set of potentially promising cause areas and interventions; doing rough Fermi estimates, cost-effectiveness analyses, and/āor forecasts; thereby narrowing the list down; and then maybe gradually doing more extensive Fermi estimates, cost-effectiveness analyses, and/āor forecasts
So itād probably be worth talking to them about this
Something like a team of part-time paid forecasters, both to forecast on various important questions and to be āon-callā when it looks like a catastrophe or window of opportunity might be looming
I think I got this idea from Linch Zhang, and it might be worth talking to him about it
80,000 Hours-style career reviews on things like diplomacy, arms control, international organisations, becoming a Russia/āIndia/āetc specialist
Itās possible itās not worth being proactive about this, and instead waiting for people to decide they want an assistant and create a job ad for one. But Iād guess that some proactiveness would be useful (i.e., that there are cases where someone would benefit from such an assistant but hasnāt thought of it, or doesnāt think the overhead of a long search for one is worthwhile)
See also this comment from someone who did this sort of role for Toby Ord
Research or writing assistance for certain independent researchers?
Additional āResearch Training Programsā like summer research fellowships, āEarly Career Conference Programmesā, internships, or similar
Probably best if this is at existing orgs
Could perhaps find an org that isnāt doing this yet but has researchers who would be capable of providing valuable mentorship, suggest the idea to them, and be or find someone who can handle the organisational aspects
In particular, something that captures the good effects a āfellowshipā can have, beyond the provision of funding (since there are already some sources of funding alone, such as the Long-Term Future Fund)
A hub for longtermism-relevant research (or a narrower area, e.g. AI) outside of US and UK
Perhaps ideally a non-Anglophone country? Perhaps ideally in Asia?
Could be a new organisation or a branch/āaffiliate of an existing one
Thereās some relevant discussion here, here, here, and I think here (though I havenāt properly read that post)
Found an organization/ācommunity similar to HIPE and/āor APPGFG, but in countries other than the UK
Iād guess itād probably be easiest in countries where there is a substantial EA presence, and perhaps easier in smaller countries like Switzerland rather than in the US
Why this might/āmight not be good:
I donāt know a huge amount about HIPE or APPGFG, but from my limited info on those orgs they seem valuable
Iād guess that thereās no major reason something similar to HIPE couldnāt be successfully replicated in other countries, if we could find the right person/āpeople
In contrast, Iād guess that there might be more barriers to successfully replicating something like APPGFG
E.g., most countries probably donāt have an institution very similar to APPGs
But I imagine something broadly similar could be replicated elsewhere
Potential next steps:
Talk to people involved in HIPE and APPGFG about whether they think these things could be replicated, how valuable they think thatād be, how theyād suggest it be done, what countries theyād suggest, and who theyād suggest talking to
Talk to other EAs, especially outside of the UK, who are involved in politics, policy, and improving institutional decision-making
Ask them for their thoughts, who theyād suggest reaching out to, and (in some cases) whether they might be interested in collaborating on this
I also had some ideas for specific research or writing projects, but Iām not including them in this list
Thatās partly because I might publish something more polished on that later
āResearch or writing assistance for researchers (especially senior ones) at orgs like FHI, Forethought, MIRI, CHAIā
As a senior research scholar at FHI, I would find this valuable if the assistant was competent and the arrangement was low cost to me (in terms of time, effort, and money). I havenāt tried to set up anything like this since I expect finding someone competent, working out the details, and managing them would not be low cost, but I could imagine that if someone else (such as BERI) took care of details, it very well may be low cost. I support efforts to try to set something like this up, and Iād like to throw my hat into the ring of āresearchers who would plausibly be interested in assistantsā if anyone does set this up.
Some ideas for projects to improve the long-term future
In January, I spent ~1 hour trying to brainstorm relatively concrete ideas for projects that might help improve the long-term future. I later spent another ~1 hour editing what I came up with for this shortform. This shortform includes basically everything I came up with, not just a top selection, so not all of these ideas will be great. Iām also sure that my commentary misses some important points. But I thought it was worth sharing this list anyway.
The ideas vary in the extent to which the bottleneck(s) to executing them are the right person/āpeople, buy-in from the right existing organisation, or funding.
Iām not expecting to execute these ideas in the near-term future myself, so if you think one of these ideas sounds promising and relevant to your skills, interests, etc., please feel very free to explore the idea further, to comment here, and/āor to reach out to me to discuss it!
Something along the lines of compiling a large set of potentially promising cause areas and interventions; doing rough Fermi estimates, cost-effectiveness analyses, and/āor forecasts; thereby narrowing the list down; and then maybe gradually doing more extensive Fermi estimates, cost-effectiveness analyses, and/āor forecasts
This is somewhat similar to things that Ozzie Gooen, NuƱo Sempere, and Charity Entrepreneurship have done or are doing
Ozzie also discusses some similar ideas here
So itād probably be worth talking to them about this
Something like a team of part-time paid forecasters, both to forecast on various important questions and to be āon-callā when it looks like a catastrophe or window of opportunity might be looming
I think I got this idea from Linch Zhang, and it might be worth talking to him about it
80,000 Hours-style career reviews on things like diplomacy, arms control, international organisations, becoming a Russia/āIndia/āetc specialist
Some discussion here
Could see if 80k would be happy to supervise someone else to do this
Could seek out EAs or EA-aligned people who are working full-time in related areas
Organisations like HIPE, CSET, and EA Russia might have useful connections
I might be open to collaborating with someone on this
Research or writing assistance for researchers (especially senior ones) at orgs like FHI, Forethought, MIRI, CHAI
This might allow them to complete additional valuable projects
This also might help the research or writing assistants build career capital and test fit for valuable roles
Maybe BERI can already provide this?
Itās possible itās not worth being proactive about this, and instead waiting for people to decide they want an assistant and create a job ad for one. But Iād guess that some proactiveness would be useful (i.e., that there are cases where someone would benefit from such an assistant but hasnāt thought of it, or doesnāt think the overhead of a long search for one is worthwhile)
See also this comment from someone who did this sort of role for Toby Ord
Research or writing assistance for certain independent researchers?
Ops assistance for orgs like FHI?
But I think orgs like BERI and the Future of Humanity Foundation are already in this space
Additional āResearch Training Programsā like summer research fellowships, āEarly Career Conference Programmesā, internships, or similar
Probably best if this is at existing orgs
Could perhaps find an org that isnāt doing this yet but has researchers who would be capable of providing valuable mentorship, suggest the idea to them, and be or find someone who can handle the organisational aspects
Something like the Open Phil AI fellowship, but for another topic
In particular, something that captures the good effects a āfellowshipā can have, beyond the provision of funding (since there are already some sources of funding alone, such as the Long-Term Future Fund)
A hub for longtermism-relevant research (or a narrower area, e.g. AI) outside of US and UK
Perhaps ideally a non-Anglophone country? Perhaps ideally in Asia?
Could be a new organisation or a branch/āaffiliate of an existing one
Thereās some relevant discussion here, here, here, and I think here (though I havenāt properly read that post)
Found an organization/ācommunity similar to HIPE and/āor APPGFG, but in countries other than the UK
Iād guess itād probably be easiest in countries where there is a substantial EA presence, and perhaps easier in smaller countries like Switzerland rather than in the US
Why this might/āmight not be good:
I donāt know a huge amount about HIPE or APPGFG, but from my limited info on those orgs they seem valuable
Iād guess that thereās no major reason something similar to HIPE couldnāt be successfully replicated in other countries, if we could find the right person/āpeople
In contrast, Iād guess that there might be more barriers to successfully replicating something like APPGFG
E.g., most countries probably donāt have an institution very similar to APPGs
But I imagine something broadly similar could be replicated elsewhere
Potential next steps:
Talk to people involved in HIPE and APPGFG about whether they think these things could be replicated, how valuable they think thatād be, how theyād suggest it be done, what countries theyād suggest, and who theyād suggest talking to
Talk to other EAs, especially outside of the UK, who are involved in politics, policy, and improving institutional decision-making
Ask them for their thoughts, who theyād suggest reaching out to, and (in some cases) whether they might be interested in collaborating on this
I also had some ideas for specific research or writing projects, but Iām not including them in this list
Thatās partly because I might publish something more polished on that later
Itās mostly because people can check out A central directory for open research questions for a broader set of research project ideas
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The views I expressed here are my own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employers.
āResearch or writing assistance for researchers (especially senior ones) at orgs like FHI, Forethought, MIRI, CHAIā
As a senior research scholar at FHI, I would find this valuable if the assistant was competent and the arrangement was low cost to me (in terms of time, effort, and money). I havenāt tried to set up anything like this since I expect finding someone competent, working out the details, and managing them would not be low cost, but I could imagine that if someone else (such as BERI) took care of details, it very well may be low cost. I support efforts to try to set something like this up, and Iād like to throw my hat into the ring of āresearchers who would plausibly be interested in assistantsā if anyone does set this up.