If the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027[1] as reported by FRED is higher than 8 % (it was 4.0 % in 2024), I give you 10 k$.
Otherwise, you give me 5 k$.
You expect to gain money from this bet if your probability of the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027 being higher than 8 % exceeds 1⁄3 (= 1/(10*10^3/(5*10^3) + 1)). Feel free to suggest updates.
This is not an official proposal. I would want to think about it a little more, and then publish a post about it.
I’d certainly bet on higher US unemployment by 2027, in part due to AI automation.
Hi David,
What is your median guess for the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027? It was 4.0 % in 2024.
Median, above 6%, but I’d take a bet with reasonable odds for >8% before end of 2027.
What do you think about the following bet?
If the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027[1] as reported by FRED is higher than 8 % (it was 4.0 % in 2024), I give you 10 k$.
Otherwise, you give me 5 k$.
You expect to gain money from this bet if your probability of the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027 being higher than 8 % exceeds 1⁄3 (= 1/(10*10^3/(5*10^3) + 1)). Feel free to suggest updates.
This is not an official proposal. I would want to think about it a little more, and then publish a post about it.
This is equal to (“rate in January 2027” + “rate in February 2027″ + … + “rate in December 2027”)/12.
I’d do that, but for $1000 / $2000.
Cool! I will try to set up a draft post over the next 2 weeks.
Here is the announcement of the bet.