Thanks for sharing! If relevant to anyone seeing this, I amopen to betting up to 10 k$ against short AI timelines, or large unemployment (my median unemployment rate in the United States (US) in 2027 is something like 4 %).
If the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027[1] as reported by FRED is higher than 8 % (it was 4.0 % in 2024), I give you 10 k$.
Otherwise, you give me 5 k$.
You expect to gain money from this bet if your probability of the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027 being higher than 8 % exceeds 1ā3 (= 1/ā(10*10^3/ā(5*10^3) + 1)). Feel free to suggest updates.
This is not an official proposal. I would want to think about it a little more, and then publish a post about it.
Thanks for sharing! If relevant to anyone seeing this, I am open to betting up to 10 k$ against short AI timelines, or large unemployment (my median unemployment rate in the United States (US) in 2027 is something like 4 %).
Iād certainly bet on higher US unemployment by 2027, in part due to AI automation.
Hi David,
What is your median guess for the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027? It was 4.0 % in 2024.
Median, above 6%, but Iād take a bet with reasonable odds for >8% before end of 2027.
What do you think about the following bet?
If the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027[1] as reported by FRED is higher than 8 % (it was 4.0 % in 2024), I give you 10 k$.
Otherwise, you give me 5 k$.
You expect to gain money from this bet if your probability of the mean monthly unemployment rate in the US in 2027 being higher than 8 % exceeds 1ā3 (= 1/ā(10*10^3/ā(5*10^3) + 1)). Feel free to suggest updates.
This is not an official proposal. I would want to think about it a little more, and then publish a post about it.
This is equal to (ārate in January 2027ā + ārate in February 2027ā³ + ā¦ + ārate in December 2027ā)/ā12.
Iād do that, but for $1000 /ā $2000.
Cool! I will try to set up a draft post over the next 2 weeks.
Here is the announcement of the bet.