“Even if we give this allegedly lower bound on the cumulative output potential of a technologically mature civilisation [he’s referring to his estimate of 10^52 future lives here] (+52) a mere 1 per cent chance (-2) of being correct, we find that the expected value of reducing existential risk by a mere one billionth (-12) of one billionth (-12) of one percentage point (-2) is worth (=) a hundred (+2) billion (+12) times as much as a billion (+12) human lives.”
Even then it seems off?
52-2-12-12-2 = 24 != 26 = 2+12+12
Sure but what’s 2 OOMs between friends?