“Even if we give this allegedly lower bound on the cumulative output potential of a technologically mature civilisation [he’s referring to his estimate of 10^52 future lives here] (+52) a mere 1 per cent chance (-2) of being correct, we find that the expected value of reducing existential risk by a mere one billionth (-12) of one billionth (-12) of one percentage point (-2) is worth (=) a hundred (+2) billion (+12) times as much as a billion (+12) human lives.”
Yeah, I’ve had the same thought. But as far as I can tell, it still doesn’t add up, so I figured there must be something else going on. Thanks for your reply, though.
Not an excuse, but maybe Bostrom was using the old British definition of “billion,” rather than the American and modern British definition of billion?
Even then it seems off?
52-2-12-12-2 = 24 != 26 = 2+12+12
Sure but what’s 2 OOMs between friends?
Yeah, I’ve had the same thought. But as far as I can tell, it still doesn’t add up, so I figured there must be something else going on. Thanks for your reply, though.