Just flagging that I, and others I know, would also be happy to take folks up on the animal welfare side of this trade if AI-concerned folks are interested! Reach out if so (and happy to discuss basically all amounts above $1,000).
I’d personally strongly consider betting $1000-$10,000 USD so long as it’s secured against the value of some illiquid asset (e.g. a building). Please DM me if you’re interested in betting that the world ends.
Do you know a way of securing such a bet against a house in a water-tight way? I’ve been told by someone who’s consulted a lawyer that such a civil contract would not be enforceable if it came down to enforcement being necessary.
I am surprised that you don’t understand Eliezer’s comments in this thread. I claim you’d do better to donate $X to PauseAI now than lock up $2X which you will never see again (plus lock up more for overcollateralization) in order to get $X to PauseAI now.
Did you follow the thread(s) all the way to theend? I do see the overcollateralized part of the lock-up again. And I’m planning on holding ~50% long term (i.e. past 5 years) because I’m on ~50% that we make it past then.
Alas, Eliezer did not answer my question at the end.
No. I can only get crypto-backed loans (e.g. Aave). Currently on ~10% interest; no guarantee they won’t go above 15% over 5 years + counterparty risk to my collateral.
I’m an AI-concerned person who would also likely take this bet (or similar bets) against Greg’s side, i.e. I don’t think that AGI will kill us all by the end of 2027. Please do reach out if you’d like to bet in the $100-$10k range.
Note that I made an exception on timelines for this bet, to get it to happen as the first of it’s kind. I’d be more comfortable making it 5 years from the date of the bet. Anyway, open to doing $10k, especially if it’s done in terms of donations (makes things easier in terms of trust, I think). But I’m also going to say that I think the signalling value would be higher if it was against someone who wasn’t EA or concerned about AI x-risk.
When you say ‘AI concerned’ does that mean you would be interested in taking Greg’s side of the bet (that everyone will die)? That is my interpretation, but the fact that you didn’t say this explicitly makes me unsure.
Just flagging that I, and others I know, would also be happy to take folks up on the animal welfare side of this trade if AI-concerned folks are interested! Reach out if so (and happy to discuss basically all amounts above $1,000).
I’d personally strongly consider betting $1000-$10,000 USD so long as it’s secured against the value of some illiquid asset (e.g. a building). Please DM me if you’re interested in betting that the world ends.
Do you know a way of securing such a bet against a house in a water-tight way? I’ve been told by someone who’s consulted a lawyer that such a civil contract would not be enforceable if it came down to enforcement being necessary.
$250k?
I’m also interested in the same bet against you, Greg. Happy to do $10K.
I am surprised that you don’t understand Eliezer’s comments in this thread. I claim you’d do better to donate $X to PauseAI now than lock up $2X which you will never see again (plus lock up more for overcollateralization) in order to get $X to PauseAI now.
Did you follow the thread(s) all the way to the end? I do see the overcollateralized part of the lock-up again. And I’m planning on holding ~50% long term (i.e. past 5 years) because I’m on ~50% that we make it past then.
Alas, Eliezer did not answer my question at the end.
@EliezerYudkowsky
You can’t get loans at better rates, accounting for your P(doom) (and/or without setting aside as much collateral)?
No. I can only get crypto-backed loans (e.g. Aave). Currently on ~10% interest; no guarantee they won’t go above 15% over 5 years + counterparty risk to my collateral.
I’m an AI-concerned person who would also likely take this bet (or similar bets) against Greg’s side, i.e. I don’t think that AGI will kill us all by the end of 2027. Please do reach out if you’d like to bet in the $100-$10k range.
(Edited for clarity)
Note that I made an exception on timelines for this bet, to get it to happen as the first of it’s kind. I’d be more comfortable making it 5 years from the date of the bet. Anyway, open to doing $10k, especially if it’s done in terms of donations (makes things easier in terms of trust, I think). But I’m also going to say that I think the signalling value would be higher if it was against someone who wasn’t EA or concerned about AI x-risk.
When you say ‘AI concerned’ does that mean you would be interested in taking Greg’s side of the bet (that everyone will die)? That is my interpretation, but the fact that you didn’t say this explicitly makes me unsure.
Oops, I meant that I would like to bet against Greg, but I can see how my last comment was ambiguous, and I appreciate your comment.