I think it’s slightly bad when people publicly make negative EV (on a financial level) bets that are framed as object-level epistemic decisions, when in reality they primarily are hoping to make up for the negative financial EV via PR/marketing benefits for their cause[1]. The general pattern is one of several pathologies that I was worried about re:prediction markets, especially low-liquidity ones.
But at least this particular example is unusually public, so I commend you for that.
I really wish we didn’t break the fourth wall on this, but EA can’t help itself;
“The phrase that comes closest to describing this phenomenon is:”The Disclosive Corruption of Motive”
This phrase, coined by philosopher Bernard Williams, suggests that revealing too much about our motivations or reasons for acting can actually corrupt or undermine the very motives we initially had.
Williams argued that some motives are inherently “opaque” and that excessive transparency can damage their moral value. By revealing too much, we can inadvertently transform our actions from genuine expressions of care or kindness into mere calculations, thereby diminishing their moral worth.”
But I don’t even think it’s negative financial EV (see above—because I’m 50% on not having to pay it back at all because doom, and I also think the EV of my investments is >2x over the timeframe).
I think it’s slightly bad when people publicly make negative EV (on a financial level) bets that are framed as object-level epistemic decisions, when in reality they primarily are hoping to make up for the negative financial EV via PR/marketing benefits for their cause[1]. The general pattern is one of several pathologies that I was worried about re:prediction markets, especially low-liquidity ones.
But at least this particular example is unusually public, so I commend you for that.
An even more hilariously unsound example is this Balaji/James bet (https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2023/05/02/balaji-srinivasan-concedes-bet-that-bitcoin-will-reach-1-million-in-90-days/?sh=2d43759d76c6).
I really wish we didn’t break the fourth wall on this, but EA can’t help itself;
“The phrase that comes closest to describing this phenomenon is:”The Disclosive Corruption of Motive”
This phrase, coined by philosopher Bernard Williams, suggests that revealing too much about our motivations or reasons for acting can actually corrupt or undermine the very motives we initially had.
Williams argued that some motives are inherently “opaque” and that excessive transparency can damage their moral value. By revealing too much, we can inadvertently transform our actions from genuine expressions of care or kindness into mere calculations, thereby diminishing their moral worth.”
Agree with this. I think doing weird signaling stuff with bets worsens the signal that bets have on understanding people’s actual epistemic states.
But I don’t even think it’s negative financial EV (see above—because I’m 50% on not having to pay it back at all because doom, and I also think the EV of my investments is >2x over the timeframe).