I think this is the wrong way to think about it. From my or your perspective, this might have been 60⁄40 (or even 40⁄60). But a more informed actor can have better probabilities.
My point isn’t that the odds were definitely 60⁄40 (or in any particular range other than “not a dead cert for Trump and his allies to stay in power for as long as anything matters).
My point was that to gloss Musk’s political activity over the last four years as “genius” in a prediction market sense (something even he isn’t claiming) you’ve got to conclude that the most cost effective way a billionaire entrepreneur and major government contractor could get valuable ROI out of an easily-flattered president with overlapping interests was by buying Twitter and embedding himself in largely irrelevant but vaguely aligned culture war bullshit. This seems… unlikely, and it seems even more unlikely people wouldn’t have been upset enough with the economy to vote Trump without Elon’s input.
Otherwise it looks like Elon went on a political opinion binge, and this four year cycle it came up with his cards and not the other lot’s cards. Many other people backed Trump in ways which cost them less and will be easier to reconcile with future administrations, and many others will successfully curry favour without even having backed him.
Put another way, did you consider the donations of SBF to be genius last time round?
I think there is something powerful about noticing who is winning and trying to figure out what the generators for their actions are.
On this specifically:
the most cost effective way a billionaire entrepreneur and major government contractor could get valuable ROI out of an easily-flattered president with overlapping interests was by buying Twitter
This is not how I see it. Buying Twitter and changing its norms was a surprisingly high-leverage intervention in a domain where turning money into power is notoriously difficult. One of the effects, but not the only one, was influencing the outcome of the 2024 US elections.
I think there’s something quite powerful about not going all in on a single data point and noting that Musk backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 and when he did endorse the winning side in 2020 he spent most of the next year publicly complaining about the [predictable] COVID policy outcomes. The base rate for Musk specifically and politically-driven billionaires in general picking winners in elections isn’t better than pollsters, or even notably better than random chance.
Do you honestly believe that Harris (or Biden) would have won if Musk didn’t buy Twitter or spend so much time on it?
I think this is the wrong way to think about it. From my or your perspective, this might have been 60⁄40 (or even 40⁄60). But a more informed actor can have better probabilities.
My point isn’t that the odds were definitely 60⁄40 (or in any particular range other than “not a dead cert for Trump and his allies to stay in power for as long as anything matters).
My point was that to gloss Musk’s political activity over the last four years as “genius” in a prediction market sense (something even he isn’t claiming) you’ve got to conclude that the most cost effective way a billionaire entrepreneur and major government contractor could get valuable ROI out of an easily-flattered president with overlapping interests was by buying Twitter and embedding himself in largely irrelevant but vaguely aligned culture war bullshit. This seems… unlikely, and it seems even more unlikely people wouldn’t have been upset enough with the economy to vote Trump without Elon’s input.
Otherwise it looks like Elon went on a political opinion binge, and this four year cycle it came up with his cards and not the other lot’s cards. Many other people backed Trump in ways which cost them less and will be easier to reconcile with future administrations, and many others will successfully curry favour without even having backed him.
Put another way, did you consider the donations of SBF to be genius last time round?
I think there is something powerful about noticing who is winning and trying to figure out what the generators for their actions are.
On this specifically:
This is not how I see it. Buying Twitter and changing its norms was a surprisingly high-leverage intervention in a domain where turning money into power is notoriously difficult. One of the effects, but not the only one, was influencing the outcome of the 2024 US elections.
I think there’s something quite powerful about not going all in on a single data point and noting that Musk backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 and when he did endorse the winning side in 2020 he spent most of the next year publicly complaining about the [predictable] COVID policy outcomes. The base rate for Musk specifically and politically-driven billionaires in general picking winners in elections isn’t better than pollsters, or even notably better than random chance.
Do you honestly believe that Harris (or Biden) would have won if Musk didn’t buy Twitter or spend so much time on it?