The values for the standard deviation of the AI extinction risk seem to high. For example, the median and maximum AI extinction risk until the end of 2030 by superforecasters are 10^-6 and 10 % (pp. 269 and 272), and therefore the standard deviation has to be lower than 10 % (= 0.1 − 10^-6), but you report a value of 2.6 (p. 269). Maybe 2.6 is the standard deviation as a fraction of the mean (i.e. the coefficient of variation)?
Hi @Vasco Gril, thanks for the question. That is the standard deviation in percentage points. The distribution is decidedly un-Gaussian so the standard deviation is a little misleading.
We limited the y axis range on the box-and-dot plots like that one on page 272 -- they’re all truncated at the 95th percentile of tournament participants + a 5% cushion (footnote on page 18) -- so the max for Stage 1 for supers was actually 21.9%.
Here are a couple more summary stats for the superforecasters, for the 2030 question. The raw data are available here if you want to explore in more detail!
Thanks for clarifying, and sharing the data, Molly!
That is the standard deviation in percentage points.
I thought it was something else because you have “%” after the medians, but no “pp” after the standard deviations. For future occasions, you could add “pp” either after the standard deviations or in the headers.
Here are a couple more summary stats for the superforecasters, for the 2030 question.
I am surprised to see the minimum AI extinction risk until the end of 2030 is 0 for all stages. I wonder whether the values were rounded, or you had discrete options for the values which could be inputted and some forecasters selected 0 as the closest value (in a linear scale) to their best guess. I think superforecasters predicting an astronomically low extinction risk would be fine, but guessing a value of exactly 0 would be a pretty bad sign, as one cannot be infinitely confident humans will not go extinct.
Hi Rose,
The values for the standard deviation of the AI extinction risk seem to high. For example, the median and maximum AI extinction risk until the end of 2030 by superforecasters are 10^-6 and 10 % (pp. 269 and 272), and therefore the standard deviation has to be lower than 10 % (= 0.1 − 10^-6), but you report a value of 2.6 (p. 269). Maybe 2.6 is the standard deviation as a fraction of the mean (i.e. the coefficient of variation)?
Hi @Vasco Gril, thanks for the question. That is the standard deviation in percentage points. The distribution is decidedly un-Gaussian so the standard deviation is a little misleading.
We limited the y axis range on the box-and-dot plots like that one on page 272 -- they’re all truncated at the 95th percentile of tournament participants + a 5% cushion (footnote on page 18) -- so the max for Stage 1 for supers was actually 21.9%.
Here are a couple more summary stats for the superforecasters, for the 2030 question. The raw data are available here if you want to explore in more detail!
Thanks for clarifying, and sharing the data, Molly!
I thought it was something else because you have “%” after the medians, but no “pp” after the standard deviations. For future occasions, you could add “pp” either after the standard deviations or in the headers.
I am surprised to see the minimum AI extinction risk until the end of 2030 is 0 for all stages. I wonder whether the values were rounded, or you had discrete options for the values which could be inputted and some forecasters selected 0 as the closest value (in a linear scale) to their best guess. I think superforecasters predicting an astronomically low extinction risk would be fine, but guessing a value of exactly 0 would be a pretty bad sign, as one cannot be infinitely confident humans will not go extinct.