Another thought: If you do make your own existential risk estimates (whether or not you use the template I link to for that), feel free to ācommentā a link to them in the main database. And if you do so, perhaps consider noting somewhere how you came up with those estimates, which prior estimates you believe youād seen already, whether you had those in mind when you made your estimates, etc.
It seems to me that it could be valuable to pool together new estimates from the āgeneral EA publicā and track how āindependentā they seem likely to be (though Iām unsure about how valuable thatād be).
The relevant questions Iām aware of are this and these. So I guess Iād encourage people to answer those as well. Those questions are also linked to in the database already, so answers there would contribute to the pool here. And I believe people could comment there to explain their reasoning, what estimates theyād previously seen, etc.
There are more questions Iād be interested in estimates for which arenāt on Metaculus at the moment (e.g., 100% rather than >95%, dystopia rather than other risks). But I imagine they could easily be put up by someone. (Iām not very familiar with the platform yet.)
Another thought: If you do make your own existential risk estimates (whether or not you use the template I link to for that), feel free to ācommentā a link to them in the main database. And if you do so, perhaps consider noting somewhere how you came up with those estimates, which prior estimates you believe youād seen already, whether you had those in mind when you made your estimates, etc.
It seems to me that it could be valuable to pool together new estimates from the āgeneral EA publicā and track how āindependentā they seem likely to be (though Iām unsure about how valuable thatād be).
I think this is basically what Metaculus already does.
(But the post seems good /ā useful.)
Good point.
The relevant questions Iām aware of are this and these. So I guess Iād encourage people to answer those as well. Those questions are also linked to in the database already, so answers there would contribute to the pool here. And I believe people could comment there to explain their reasoning, what estimates theyād previously seen, etc.
There are more questions Iād be interested in estimates for which arenāt on Metaculus at the moment (e.g., 100% rather than >95%, dystopia rather than other risks). But I imagine they could easily be put up by someone. (Iām not very familiar with the platform yet.)