Another thought: If you do make your own existential risk estimates (whether or not you use the template I link to for that), feel free to “comment” a link to them in the main database. And if you do so, perhaps consider noting somewhere how you came up with those estimates, which prior estimates you believe you’d seen already, whether you had those in mind when you made your estimates, etc.
It seems to me that it could be valuable to pool together new estimates from the “general EA public” and track how “independent” they seem likely to be (though I’m unsure about how valuable that’d be).
The relevant questions I’m aware of are this and these. So I guess I’d encourage people to answer those as well. Those questions are also linked to in the database already, so answers there would contribute to the pool here. And I believe people could comment there to explain their reasoning, what estimates they’d previously seen, etc.
There are more questions I’d be interested in estimates for which aren’t on Metaculus at the moment (e.g., 100% rather than >95%, dystopia rather than other risks). But I imagine they could easily be put up by someone. (I’m not very familiar with the platform yet.)
Another thought: If you do make your own existential risk estimates (whether or not you use the template I link to for that), feel free to “comment” a link to them in the main database. And if you do so, perhaps consider noting somewhere how you came up with those estimates, which prior estimates you believe you’d seen already, whether you had those in mind when you made your estimates, etc.
It seems to me that it could be valuable to pool together new estimates from the “general EA public” and track how “independent” they seem likely to be (though I’m unsure about how valuable that’d be).
I think this is basically what Metaculus already does.
(But the post seems good / useful.)
Good point.
The relevant questions I’m aware of are this and these. So I guess I’d encourage people to answer those as well. Those questions are also linked to in the database already, so answers there would contribute to the pool here. And I believe people could comment there to explain their reasoning, what estimates they’d previously seen, etc.
There are more questions I’d be interested in estimates for which aren’t on Metaculus at the moment (e.g., 100% rather than >95%, dystopia rather than other risks). But I imagine they could easily be put up by someone. (I’m not very familiar with the platform yet.)