For the benefit of other readers: These estimates are about the “Timeline until human-level AGI”. The post Pablo linked to describes the methodology behind the estimates.
I don’t think this really falls directly under the scope of the spreadsheet (in that this isn’t directly an estimate of the chance of a catastrophe), so I haven’t added it to the spreadsheet itself, but it’s definitely relevant when considering x-risk/GCR estimates.
Do you know if there’s a collection of AI timelines forecasts somewhere? I’d imagine there would be?
Yes, sorry, I should have made that clearer—I posted here because I couldn’t think of a more appropriate thread, and I didn’t want to create a separate post (though maybe I could have used the “shortform” feature).
AI Impacts has a bunch of posts on this topic. This one discusses what appears to be the largest dataset of such predictions in existence. This one lists several analyses of time to human-level AI. And this one provides an overview of all their writings on AI timelines.
I think sharing that link in a comment here made sense; it’s definitely relevant in relation to this topic. I was just flagging that I didn’t think it made sense to add it to the spreadsheet itself.
But I think a similar spreadsheet to collect AI timelines estimates seems valuable (though I haven’t thought much about information/attention hazards considerations in relation to that). So thanks for linking to that AI Impacts post.
I’ve now sent AI Impacts a message asking whether they’d considered making it easy for people to comment on that dataset with links to additional predictions. So perhaps they’ll do so, or perhaps they’ll decide not to for good reasons.
An important new aggregate forecast, based on inputs from LW users:
Aggregated median date: January 26, 2047
Aggregated most likely date: November 2, 2033
Earliest median date of any forecast: June 25, 2030
Latest median date of any forecast: After 2100
Thanks for sharing this here.
For the benefit of other readers: These estimates are about the “Timeline until human-level AGI”. The post Pablo linked to describes the methodology behind the estimates.
I don’t think this really falls directly under the scope of the spreadsheet (in that this isn’t directly an estimate of the chance of a catastrophe), so I haven’t added it to the spreadsheet itself, but it’s definitely relevant when considering x-risk/GCR estimates.
Do you know if there’s a collection of AI timelines forecasts somewhere? I’d imagine there would be?
Yes, sorry, I should have made that clearer—I posted here because I couldn’t think of a more appropriate thread, and I didn’t want to create a separate post (though maybe I could have used the “shortform” feature).
AI Impacts has a bunch of posts on this topic. This one discusses what appears to be the largest dataset of such predictions in existence. This one lists several analyses of time to human-level AI. And this one provides an overview of all their writings on AI timelines.
I think sharing that link in a comment here made sense; it’s definitely relevant in relation to this topic. I was just flagging that I didn’t think it made sense to add it to the spreadsheet itself.
But I think a similar spreadsheet to collect AI timelines estimates seems valuable (though I haven’t thought much about information/attention hazards considerations in relation to that). So thanks for linking to that AI Impacts post.
I’ve now sent AI Impacts a message asking whether they’d considered making it easy for people to comment on that dataset with links to additional predictions. So perhaps they’ll do so, or perhaps they’ll decide not to for good reasons.