I’m currently #1 on the leaderboard of CSET’s foretell; predicting that, before the US elections, China would not add a U.S. company to its newly created Unreliable Entities List, and that no private messages obtained in the July Twitter hack would be leaked to the public just brought me from 2nd to 1st.
CSET’s foretell is “a crowd forecasting pilot project launched by Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology that focuses on questions relevant to technology-security policy.” CSET received/was created with a large grant from OpenPhil.
Good question. Of the binary questions which I’ve predicted and have resolved, 0⁄10 (!). But 7 were about US-China relations, so you’d expect them to be somewhat correlated. Some of them also seemed like they could have happened, like Microsoft’s acquisition of TikTok, or European countries restricting Huawai. So, overall, my gut tells me I’d expect about 10-20% to resolve positively in the future. Note that binary questions (as opposed to questions which ask about different ranges) are relatively scarce; there are 29 questions open right now of which only 4 are binary.
I’m currently #1 on the leaderboard of CSET’s foretell; predicting that, before the US elections, China would not add a U.S. company to its newly created Unreliable Entities List, and that no private messages obtained in the July Twitter hack would be leaked to the public just brought me from 2nd to 1st.
CSET’s foretell is “a crowd forecasting pilot project launched by Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology that focuses on questions relevant to technology-security policy.” CSET received/was created with a large grant from OpenPhil.
congrats that’s awesome!
Do you know what’s the base rate of questions on foretell that resolves “yes?”
Good question. Of the binary questions which I’ve predicted and have resolved, 0⁄10 (!). But 7 were about US-China relations, so you’d expect them to be somewhat correlated. Some of them also seemed like they could have happened, like Microsoft’s acquisition of TikTok, or European countries restricting Huawai. So, overall, my gut tells me I’d expect about 10-20% to resolve positively in the future. Note that binary questions (as opposed to questions which ask about different ranges) are relatively scarce; there are 29 questions open right now of which only 4 are binary.