This is a good point, I completely agree that the trade war is of small importance relative to things like relations with Taiwan. My reason for focusing on the trade war though is because trade deescalation would have very few downsides and would probably be a substantial positive all on its own before even considering the potential positive effects it could have on relations with China and possibly nuclear risk.
To me the same can’t be said for the Taiwan issue. The optimal policy here is far from clear to me. Strategic ambiguity is our intentional policy, and I’m not sure clarifying our stance would be preferable to that. Committing to defend Taiwan could allow Taiwan to do more provocative things, which could lead to war. Declaring we will not defend Taiwan could empower China to invade. I agree it’s a significant issue that should be carefully considered, but it’s also an issue that I’m sure international relations experts have spilled huge amounts of ink over so I’m not sure if there are any clearly superior policy improvements available in this area.
My reason for focusing on the trade war though is because trade deescalation would have very few downsides and would probably be a substantial positive all on its own before even considering the potential positive effects it could have on relations with China and possibly nuclear risk.
I agree. I think we’re both on the same page about the merits of ending the trade war, as an issue by itself.
The optimal policy here is far from clear to me.
Right. From my perspective, this is what makes focusing on Taiwan precisely right thing to do in a high-level analysis.
My understanding of your point here is something like, “The US-Taiwan policy is a super complicated issue so I decided not to even touch it.” But, since the US-Taiwan policy is also the most important question regarding US-China relations, not talking about it is basically just avoiding the hard part of the issue. It’s going to be difficult to make any progress if we don’t do the hard work of actually addressing the central problem.
(Maybe this is an unfair analogy, but I find what you’re saying to be a bit similar to, “I have an essay due in 12 hours. It’s on an extremely fraught topic, and I’m unsure whether my thesis is sound, or whether the supporting arguments make any sense. So, rather than deeply reconsider the points I make in my essay, I’ll just focus on making sure the essay has the right formatting instead.” I can sympathize with this sort of procrastination emotionally, but the clock is still ticking.)
I agree it’s a significant issue that should be carefully considered, but it’s also an issue that I’m sure international relations experts have spilled huge amounts of ink over so I’m not sure if there are any clearly superior policy improvements available in this area.
I expect experts to have basically spilled a huge amount of ink about every policy regarding US-China relations, so I don’t see this as a uniquely asymmetric argument against thinking about Taiwan. Maybe your point is merely that these experts have not yet come to a conclusion, so it seems unlikely that you could come to a conclusion in the span of a short essay. This would be fair reply, but I have two brief heuristic thoughts on that,
Most international relations experts neither understand, nor are motivated by an EA mindset. To the extent that you buy EA philosophy, I think we are well-positioned to have interesting analyses on questions such as, “Is it worth risking nuclear war to save a vibrant democracy?” It’s not clear to me at all that moral philosophers have adequately responded to this question already, in the way EAs would find appealing.
I understand the mindset of “Don’t try to make progress on a topic that experts have thought about for decades and yet have gone nowhere.” That’s probably true for things like string theory and the Collatz conjecture. But, this is “philosophy with a deadline” to co-opt a phrase from Nick Bostrom. There’s a real chance that World War 3 is coming in the next few decades; so, we better look that possibility in the face, rather than turning away, and caring about something comparatively minor instead.
To be clear I’m not arguing that people shouldn’t think about it or try to solve it. I’m definitely in favor of more discussion on that topic and I’d love to read some high effort analysis from an EA perspective.
If I’m understanding correctly the main point you’re making is that I probably shouldn’t have said this:
There is little room for improvement here...
Which in that case that’s a fair critique. I’m not well-informed enough to know the options here and their advantages and risks in great detail, so my perception that there’s not much room for improvement could be way off base.
I’d summarize my position as having the perception that the Taiwan issue is a hard question that I’m not equipped to solve and I’m skeptical that there are significant improvements available there, so instead I focused on a topic that I view as low hanging fruit. Though I was probably wrong to characterize the Taiwan issue as futile or unimprovable, instead I should have characterized it as a highly complex issue that I’m not equipped to do justice to and I perceive as having substantial downsides to any shift in policy.
If I’m understanding correctly the main point you’re making is that I probably shouldn’t have said this:
There is little room for improvement here...
I think I’m making two points. The first point was, yeah, I think there is substantial room for improvement here. But the second point is necessary: analyzing the situation with Taiwan is crucial if we seek to effectively reduce nuclear risk.
I do not think it was wrong to focus on the trade war. It depends on your goals. If you wanted to promote quick, actionable and robust advice, it made sense. If you wanted to stare straight into the abyss, and solve the problem directly, it made a little less sense. Sometimes the first thing is what we need. But, as I’m glad to hear, you seem to agree with me that we also sometimes need to do the second thing.
Yeah definitely on the same page then! I agree with what you said there with the possible exception or caveat that I’m skeptical on improvements to the Taiwan issue and that if you find or know of any persuasive abyss-staring arguments on this topic (or write them yourself) I’d appreciate it if you share them with me because I’d be happy to be wrong in my skepticism and would like to learn more about any promising options.
This is a good point, I completely agree that the trade war is of small importance relative to things like relations with Taiwan. My reason for focusing on the trade war though is because trade deescalation would have very few downsides and would probably be a substantial positive all on its own before even considering the potential positive effects it could have on relations with China and possibly nuclear risk.
To me the same can’t be said for the Taiwan issue. The optimal policy here is far from clear to me. Strategic ambiguity is our intentional policy, and I’m not sure clarifying our stance would be preferable to that. Committing to defend Taiwan could allow Taiwan to do more provocative things, which could lead to war. Declaring we will not defend Taiwan could empower China to invade. I agree it’s a significant issue that should be carefully considered, but it’s also an issue that I’m sure international relations experts have spilled huge amounts of ink over so I’m not sure if there are any clearly superior policy improvements available in this area.
I agree. I think we’re both on the same page about the merits of ending the trade war, as an issue by itself.
Right. From my perspective, this is what makes focusing on Taiwan precisely right thing to do in a high-level analysis.
My understanding of your point here is something like, “The US-Taiwan policy is a super complicated issue so I decided not to even touch it.” But, since the US-Taiwan policy is also the most important question regarding US-China relations, not talking about it is basically just avoiding the hard part of the issue. It’s going to be difficult to make any progress if we don’t do the hard work of actually addressing the central problem.
(Maybe this is an unfair analogy, but I find what you’re saying to be a bit similar to, “I have an essay due in 12 hours. It’s on an extremely fraught topic, and I’m unsure whether my thesis is sound, or whether the supporting arguments make any sense. So, rather than deeply reconsider the points I make in my essay, I’ll just focus on making sure the essay has the right formatting instead.” I can sympathize with this sort of procrastination emotionally, but the clock is still ticking.)
I expect experts to have basically spilled a huge amount of ink about every policy regarding US-China relations, so I don’t see this as a uniquely asymmetric argument against thinking about Taiwan. Maybe your point is merely that these experts have not yet come to a conclusion, so it seems unlikely that you could come to a conclusion in the span of a short essay. This would be fair reply, but I have two brief heuristic thoughts on that,
Most international relations experts neither understand, nor are motivated by an EA mindset. To the extent that you buy EA philosophy, I think we are well-positioned to have interesting analyses on questions such as, “Is it worth risking nuclear war to save a vibrant democracy?” It’s not clear to me at all that moral philosophers have adequately responded to this question already, in the way EAs would find appealing.
I understand the mindset of “Don’t try to make progress on a topic that experts have thought about for decades and yet have gone nowhere.” That’s probably true for things like string theory and the Collatz conjecture. But, this is “philosophy with a deadline” to co-opt a phrase from Nick Bostrom. There’s a real chance that World War 3 is coming in the next few decades; so, we better look that possibility in the face, rather than turning away, and caring about something comparatively minor instead.
To be clear I’m not arguing that people shouldn’t think about it or try to solve it. I’m definitely in favor of more discussion on that topic and I’d love to read some high effort analysis from an EA perspective.
If I’m understanding correctly the main point you’re making is that I probably shouldn’t have said this:
Which in that case that’s a fair critique. I’m not well-informed enough to know the options here and their advantages and risks in great detail, so my perception that there’s not much room for improvement could be way off base.
I’d summarize my position as having the perception that the Taiwan issue is a hard question that I’m not equipped to solve and I’m skeptical that there are significant improvements available there, so instead I focused on a topic that I view as low hanging fruit. Though I was probably wrong to characterize the Taiwan issue as futile or unimprovable, instead I should have characterized it as a highly complex issue that I’m not equipped to do justice to and I perceive as having substantial downsides to any shift in policy.
Thanks for the continued discussion.
I think I’m making two points. The first point was, yeah, I think there is substantial room for improvement here. But the second point is necessary: analyzing the situation with Taiwan is crucial if we seek to effectively reduce nuclear risk.
I do not think it was wrong to focus on the trade war. It depends on your goals. If you wanted to promote quick, actionable and robust advice, it made sense. If you wanted to stare straight into the abyss, and solve the problem directly, it made a little less sense. Sometimes the first thing is what we need. But, as I’m glad to hear, you seem to agree with me that we also sometimes need to do the second thing.
Yeah definitely on the same page then! I agree with what you said there with the possible exception or caveat that I’m skeptical on improvements to the Taiwan issue and that if you find or know of any persuasive abyss-staring arguments on this topic (or write them yourself) I’d appreciate it if you share them with me because I’d be happy to be wrong in my skepticism and would like to learn more about any promising options.