It might be worth doing a pre-registered experiment of people who have never directly talked to non-GWWC members about GWWC before, or at least not in the last 6 months.
Say we get 10 of such people, and they each message 5-20 of their friends. If our initial models are correct (and I agree with you that from the outside view this looks unusually high), we would expect 5-20 new pledges to come out of this.
Do you happen to be somebody in this category? If so, would you be interested in participating in such an experiment?
It might be worth doing a pre-registered experiment of people who have never directly talked to non-GWWC members about GWWC before, or at least not in the last 6 months.
Good idea.
Do you happen to be somebody in this category? If so, would you be interested in participating in such an experiment?
I would have said this a little over a year ago, but I’m less surprised by it now and I do expect it would replicate. I also expect that it becomes less effective as it scales (I expect the people who currently do it are above average at this, due to selection effects), but not by that much.
This is based on running a local EA group for a year and constantly being surprised by how much easier it is to get a pledge than I thought it would be.
It might be worth doing a pre-registered experiment of people who have never directly talked to non-GWWC members about GWWC before, or at least not in the last 6 months.
Say we get 10 of such people, and they each message 5-20 of their friends. If our initial models are correct (and I agree with you that from the outside view this looks unusually high), we would expect 5-20 new pledges to come out of this.
Do you happen to be somebody in this category? If so, would you be interested in participating in such an experiment?
Good idea.
Yes and yes.
I would have said this a little over a year ago, but I’m less surprised by it now and I do expect it would replicate. I also expect that it becomes less effective as it scales (I expect the people who currently do it are above average at this, due to selection effects), but not by that much.
This is based on running a local EA group for a year and constantly being surprised by how much easier it is to get a pledge than I thought it would be.