Sounds reasonable enough to me.
The bet will resolve in your favor if the median temperature increase in the stated policies scenario of the 2032 IEA report is above 2°C.
If the IEA report does not exist or does not report an equivalent of their stated policies scenario the bet resolves ambiguously.
Very curious to see what will actually happen!
Alright, that’s settled then. Also looking forward to resolution!
Major kudos to both of you for this bet. I’ll probably refer to this thread in future as a great example of respectful, productive disagreement!
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Less Wrong (text)
Less Wrong (link)
Sounds reasonable enough to me.
The bet will resolve in your favor if the median temperature increase in the stated policies scenario of the 2032 IEA report is above 2°C.
If the IEA report does not exist or does not report an equivalent of their stated policies scenario the bet resolves ambiguously.
Very curious to see what will actually happen!
Alright, that’s settled then. Also looking forward to resolution!
Major kudos to both of you for this bet. I’ll probably refer to this thread in future as a great example of respectful, productive disagreement!