I get your reasons and I hope I lose the 100 $. I also think the probable temperature for 2100 will continue to go down. However, we still have quite a long way to go to get to 2°C.
The IPCC does not really attach probabilities to temperatures. Therefore, it is not really possible to directly go for the IPCC reports as resolution. One possibility would be the Internationale Energy Agency. They regularly publish estimates of likely temperature trajectories. Their current estimate is that with currently (in 2021) stated policies we’ll get 2.6°C in 2100. We could use the median estimate for stated policies in their report for 2032.
As they have been around since 1974, it seems likely they will continue to exist in until 2032. However, they might chance the way they do their reporting, so I am not sure if this is a great way to resolve this.
Sounds reasonable enough to me.
The bet will resolve in your favor if the median temperature increase in the stated policies scenario of the 2032 IEA report is above 2°C.
If the IEA report does not exist or does not report an equivalent of their stated policies scenario the bet resolves ambiguously.
Very curious to see what will actually happen!
Alright, that’s settled then. Also looking forward to resolution!
Major kudos to both of you for this bet. I’ll probably refer to this thread in future as a great example of respectful, productive disagreement!