Survey data doesn’t support your second point though: “[most people in Taiwan] simply want to be their own nation instead, indefinitely”. Most people in Taiwan support the status quo in various forms:
Maintain status quo, move toward independence (25.1%)
The survey question doesn’t define what the status quo is, but it’s definitely not independence, and it’s definitely not unification. It’s the grey area, the middle choice, between independence and unification.
The US uses strategic ambiguity to keep Taiwan with the status quo. It will support Taiwan as long as it doesn’t declare formal independence and start a war.
Why is the status quo so popular? It means peace and prosperity, and it has been surprisingly stable over the last 70 years.
Thanks. I don’t agree with your interpretation of the survey data. I’ll quote another sentence from the essay that made my statement on this more clear,
The majority of the population of Taiwan simply want to be left alone, as a sovereign nation—which they already are, in every practical sense.
The position “declare independence as soon as possible” is unpopular for an obvious reason that I explained in the post. Namely, if Taiwan made a formal declaration of independence, it would potentially trigger a Chinese invasion.
“Maintaining the status quo” is, for the most part, code for maintaining functional independence, which is popular, because as you said, “It means peace and prosperity, and it has been surprisingly stable over the last 70 years.” This is what I meant by saying the Taiwanese “want to be their own nation instead, indefinitely” in the sentence you quoted, because I was talking about what’s actually practically true, not just what’s true on paper.
I’ll note that if you add up the percentage of people who want to maintain the status quo indefinitely, and those who want to maintain the status quo but move towards independence, it sums to 52.4%. It goes up to 58.4% if you include people who want to declare independence as soon as possible.
I admit my wording sucked, but I think what I said basically matches the facts-on-the ground, if not the literal survey data you quoted, in the sense that there is almost no political will right now to reunify with China (at least until they meet some hypothetical conditions, which they probably won’t any time soon).
No worries. I think we have different definitions of the status quo, and that is affecting our interpretation of the survey results.
Your definition of the status quo is a form of independence: functional independence (or perhaps de facto independence). In which case, since all the survey results show that “Maintain status quo” is popular, means that independence is the most popular choice.
My definition of the status quo is something in-between unification and independence, like a third way. It’s the “none of the above” choice, disapproving both unification and independence. If this definition is used, then all the survey results show that this position is the most popular choice.
It’s a shame that the survey question doesn’t actually define what the status quo is. The status quo changes over time too, so it’s hard to pin down.
But perhaps that is what makes the status quo option so popular. It’s a vague, undefined entity that can be interpreted whatever way you like.
Thanks for your post! Good to see this issue in the EA Forum.
Regarding the statement that:
Survey data supports your first point. The vast majority of people in Taiwan call themselves “Taiwanese” or “Both Taiwanese and Chinese”:
Survey data doesn’t support your second point though: “[most people in Taiwan] simply want to be their own nation instead, indefinitely”. Most people in Taiwan support the status quo in various forms:
The most popular options are:
Maintain status quo, decide at later date (28.4%)
Maintain status quo indefinitely (27.3%)
Maintain status quo, move toward independence (25.1%)
The survey question doesn’t define what the status quo is, but it’s definitely not independence, and it’s definitely not unification. It’s the grey area, the middle choice, between independence and unification.
The US uses strategic ambiguity to keep Taiwan with the status quo. It will support Taiwan as long as it doesn’t declare formal independence and start a war.
Why is the status quo so popular? It means peace and prosperity, and it has been surprisingly stable over the last 70 years.
Thanks. I don’t agree with your interpretation of the survey data. I’ll quote another sentence from the essay that made my statement on this more clear,
The position “declare independence as soon as possible” is unpopular for an obvious reason that I explained in the post. Namely, if Taiwan made a formal declaration of independence, it would potentially trigger a Chinese invasion.
“Maintaining the status quo” is, for the most part, code for maintaining functional independence, which is popular, because as you said, “It means peace and prosperity, and it has been surprisingly stable over the last 70 years.” This is what I meant by saying the Taiwanese “want to be their own nation instead, indefinitely” in the sentence you quoted, because I was talking about what’s actually practically true, not just what’s true on paper.
I’ll note that if you add up the percentage of people who want to maintain the status quo indefinitely, and those who want to maintain the status quo but move towards independence, it sums to 52.4%. It goes up to 58.4% if you include people who want to declare independence as soon as possible.
I admit my wording sucked, but I think what I said basically matches the facts-on-the ground, if not the literal survey data you quoted, in the sense that there is almost no political will right now to reunify with China (at least until they meet some hypothetical conditions, which they probably won’t any time soon).
No worries. I think we have different definitions of the status quo, and that is affecting our interpretation of the survey results.
Your definition of the status quo is a form of independence: functional independence (or perhaps de facto independence). In which case, since all the survey results show that “Maintain status quo” is popular, means that independence is the most popular choice.
My definition of the status quo is something in-between unification and independence, like a third way. It’s the “none of the above” choice, disapproving both unification and independence. If this definition is used, then all the survey results show that this position is the most popular choice.
It’s a shame that the survey question doesn’t actually define what the status quo is. The status quo changes over time too, so it’s hard to pin down.
But perhaps that is what makes the status quo option so popular. It’s a vague, undefined entity that can be interpreted whatever way you like.
Anyway, for completeness, here’s the full survey question from the data collection methodology: