How are you operationalizing this? No matter the odds, it doesn’t make sense to make bets of the form
heads we’re dead OR there’s infinite abundance + I get some money from you
tails I give your some money
Maybe would be open to “you transfer 1k to me now (2026), I give you interest-indexed 2k in 2035” or whatever odds make sense. Though I understand you’d need to trust me and/or some trusted way to make sure I give it back
I also don’t think short timelines is actually cruxy to my argument above, which is mainly about their argument being wrong + pointing at other arguments for misalignment, not timelines.
Maybe would be open to “you transfer 1k to me now (2026), I give you interest-indexed 2k in 2035” or whatever odds make sense.
I made a similar bet in the past, but the one above is not worth it for me. Global stocks had annual real returns of 5 % from 1900 to 2022, and I expect faster growth from 2026 to 2035. For an annual real growth of 7.5 %, the bet would only be worth it if I won 1.92 (= (1 + 0.075)^(2035 − 2026)) times as many 2026-$ as those I initially invested. Assuming a 75 % chance of winning given the risk of you not paying me, I would need to win 2.56 (= 1.92/0.75) times as many 2026-$ as those I initially invested. Are you open to a bet like the one here, but resolving at the end of 2034, and involving a potential gain for me of 3 times as many 2026-$ as those I initially invested (for example, 1 k 2026-$)? If so, are you also open to disclaiming and confirming your identify? I would want this to ensure you have a greater incentive to respect the bet.
That’s what I meant by interest-indexed, unless that isn’t capturing your concern?
Also to be clear that was just an example possible bet, would have to think about what actually makes sense (2035 is somewhat near my median tho). My point was just that money isn’t valuable to me after crazy AI stuff already happened, so me winning has no value in a conventional bet & it has to be constructed giving money beforehand to be returned with interest + winnings.
Would be open to confirming identity, and/or likely have other folks who would be keen to make the same bet.
What is your P(existentially bad outcomes) in the next 10 years? As maybe a starting point for finding a bet that sounds good to you.
That’s what I meant by interest-indexed, unless that isn’t capturing your concern?
Got it. I would give you 1 k$, and, if I won, you would give me 2 k$ times the ratio between the unit value of global stocks at the end of 2034 and time of my initial transfer.
What is your P(existentially bad outcomes) in the next 10 years? As maybe a starting point for finding a bet that sounds good to you.
The bet above sounds good to me. The unit value of global stocks can be that of Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS - (USD) Accumulating, which is the one I invest in. I would want to make a post to formalise the bet. Let me know if you want to move forward.
sorry, I don’t check the forum much. And yeah, your revised picture sounds like what I meant.
Still interested in something like this, though might punt on it for a month or two (busy times), partly because I have to think about what makes sense to me/what my probabilities are. The above was just intended to illustrate the point about betting, I didn’t think much about the numbers. I’m definitely not an “AI 2027” person, but also definitely not an “AI 2070″ person re: medians.
If you know your numbers that would help—e.g. it sounds like you could suggest numbers that are a good deal to you, but also sound like an obviously good deal to me, despite my less-clear picture? You could also hash that if desired until I come back :P
Still interested in something like this, though might punt on it for a month or two (busy times)
Ok. I will remind you about this in 1.5 months (June 22).
If you know your numbers that would help—e.g. it sounds like you could suggest numbers that are a good deal to you, but also sound like an obviously good deal to me, despite my less-clear picture? You could also hash that if desired until I come back :P
I think the probability of human extinction this century is much lower than 1 %. I guess the probability of you not paying me back for reasons that do not have to do with transformative AI (TAI), which I speculate would be around 25 % for a bet resolving at the end of 2034, is much higher than the probability of human extinction, or additional income no longer being relevant.
@nonn? If you initially getting 1 k$ is not enough to motivate you to look into this bet, I would be happy to increase the stakes, potentially up to you initially 10 k$.
How are you operationalizing this? No matter the odds, it doesn’t make sense to make bets of the form
heads we’re dead OR there’s infinite abundance + I get some money from you
tails I give your some money
Maybe would be open to “you transfer 1k to me now (2026), I give you interest-indexed 2k in 2035” or whatever odds make sense. Though I understand you’d need to trust me and/or some trusted way to make sure I give it back
I also don’t think short timelines is actually cruxy to my argument above, which is mainly about their argument being wrong + pointing at other arguments for misalignment, not timelines.
Your median date for this is in 2035?
I made a similar bet in the past, but the one above is not worth it for me. Global stocks had annual real returns of 5 % from 1900 to 2022, and I expect faster growth from 2026 to 2035. For an annual real growth of 7.5 %, the bet would only be worth it if I won 1.92 (= (1 + 0.075)^(2035 − 2026)) times as many 2026-$ as those I initially invested. Assuming a 75 % chance of winning given the risk of you not paying me, I would need to win 2.56 (= 1.92/0.75) times as many 2026-$ as those I initially invested. Are you open to a bet like the one here, but resolving at the end of 2034, and involving a potential gain for me of 3 times as many 2026-$ as those I initially invested (for example, 1 k 2026-$)? If so, are you also open to disclaiming and confirming your identify? I would want this to ensure you have a greater incentive to respect the bet.
That’s what I meant by interest-indexed, unless that isn’t capturing your concern?
Also to be clear that was just an example possible bet, would have to think about what actually makes sense (2035 is somewhat near my median tho). My point was just that money isn’t valuable to me after crazy AI stuff already happened, so me winning has no value in a conventional bet & it has to be constructed giving money beforehand to be returned with interest + winnings.
Would be open to confirming identity, and/or likely have other folks who would be keen to make the same bet.
What is your P(existentially bad outcomes) in the next 10 years? As maybe a starting point for finding a bet that sounds good to you.
Got it. I would give you 1 k$, and, if I won, you would give me 2 k$ times the ratio between the unit value of global stocks at the end of 2034 and time of my initial transfer.
The bet above sounds good to me. The unit value of global stocks can be that of Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS - (USD) Accumulating, which is the one I invest in. I would want to make a post to formalise the bet. Let me know if you want to move forward.
@nonn?
sorry, I don’t check the forum much. And yeah, your revised picture sounds like what I meant.
Still interested in something like this, though might punt on it for a month or two (busy times), partly because I have to think about what makes sense to me/what my probabilities are. The above was just intended to illustrate the point about betting, I didn’t think much about the numbers. I’m definitely not an “AI 2027” person, but also definitely not an “AI 2070″ person re: medians.
If you know your numbers that would help—e.g. it sounds like you could suggest numbers that are a good deal to you, but also sound like an obviously good deal to me, despite my less-clear picture? You could also hash that if desired until I come back :P
Ok. I will remind you about this in 1.5 months (June 22).
I think the probability of human extinction this century is much lower than 1 %. I guess the probability of you not paying me back for reasons that do not have to do with transformative AI (TAI), which I speculate would be around 25 % for a bet resolving at the end of 2034, is much higher than the probability of human extinction, or additional income no longer being relevant.
@nonn? If you initially getting 1 k$ is not enough to motivate you to look into this bet, I would be happy to increase the stakes, potentially up to you initially 10 k$.