Absent an agreement with enough backing it to stick, slowdown by the US tightens the international gap in AI and means less slack (and less ability to pause when it counts) and more risk of catastrophe in the transition to AGI and ASI.
I agree this mechanism seems possible, but it seems far from certain to me. Three scenarios where it would be false:
One country pauses, which gives the other country a commanding lead with even more slack than anyone had before.
One country pauses, and the other country, facing reduced incentives for haste, also pauses.
One country pauses, which significantly slows down the other country also, because they were acting as a fast-follower, copying the models and smuggling the chips from the leader.
A intuition-pump I like here is to think about how good it would be if China credibly unilaterally paused, and then see how many of these would also apply to the US.
Sure, these are possible. My view above was about expectations. #1 and #2 are possible, although look less likely to me. There’s some truth to #3, but the net effect is still gap closing, and the slowing tends to be more earlier (when it is less impactful) than later.
I agree this mechanism seems possible, but it seems far from certain to me. Three scenarios where it would be false:
One country pauses, which gives the other country a commanding lead with even more slack than anyone had before.
One country pauses, and the other country, facing reduced incentives for haste, also pauses.
One country pauses, which significantly slows down the other country also, because they were acting as a fast-follower, copying the models and smuggling the chips from the leader.
A intuition-pump I like here is to think about how good it would be if China credibly unilaterally paused, and then see how many of these would also apply to the US.
Sure, these are possible. My view above was about expectations. #1 and #2 are possible, although look less likely to me. There’s some truth to #3, but the net effect is still gap closing, and the slowing tends to be more earlier (when it is less impactful) than later.