Yeah I’ve been interested in prediction markets for years (and usually played the “against” role in discussions) and don’t think I’ve ever came across a serious sports gambling objection before it seemed inevitable.
To be clear I don’t think it’s a major defeater to prediction markets; sports gambling is evil (especially the Current Year implementations with algorithmic optimization of Dark Patterns) but the net contribution of prediction markets to sports gambling success is probably pretty minimal.
I also don’t think it’s a defeater for prediction markets in general. However:
the net contribution of prediction markets to sports gambling success is probably pretty minimal.
I’m actually pretty unsure about this. One issue is that by having CFTC-regulated sports betting
“prediction markets”, federal preemption causes sports betting to expand into states that would otherwise prohibit it.
Also, I don’t think the right question is “have prediction markets contributed to the success of sports gambling?” Rather, it’s “has have the harms from sports gambling on prediction markets outweighed their benefits?” I don’t have a strong view on this, but it seems plausible so far.
I think the biggest impact, though, is that now prediction markets are becoming strongly associated with sports betting, in a way that threatens their political viability as a project.
I wonder how much value there would be in a company that principally doesn’t engage in sports betting. From my understanding, lots of people that bet on these markets like betting on non-sports claims but just hate the sports market component.
Yeah I’ve been interested in prediction markets for years (and usually played the “against” role in discussions) and don’t think I’ve ever came across a serious sports gambling objection before it seemed inevitable.
To be clear I don’t think it’s a major defeater to prediction markets; sports gambling is evil (especially the Current Year implementations with algorithmic optimization of Dark Patterns) but the net contribution of prediction markets to sports gambling success is probably pretty minimal.
I also don’t think it’s a defeater for prediction markets in general. However:
I’m actually pretty unsure about this. One issue is that by having CFTC-regulated sports betting “prediction markets”, federal preemption causes sports betting to expand into states that would otherwise prohibit it.
Also, I don’t think the right question is “have prediction markets contributed to the success of sports gambling?” Rather, it’s “has have the harms from sports gambling on prediction markets outweighed their benefits?” I don’t have a strong view on this, but it seems plausible so far.
I think the biggest impact, though, is that now prediction markets are becoming strongly associated with sports betting, in a way that threatens their political viability as a project.
I wonder how much value there would be in a company that principally doesn’t engage in sports betting. From my understanding, lots of people that bet on these markets like betting on non-sports claims but just hate the sports market component.