I also donāt think itās a defeater for prediction markets in general. However:
the net contribution of prediction markets to sports gambling success is probably pretty minimal.
Iām actually pretty unsure about this. One issue is that by having CFTC-regulated sports betting
āprediction marketsā, federal preemption causes sports betting to expand into states that would otherwise prohibit it.
Also, I donāt think the right question is āhave prediction markets contributed to the success of sports gambling?ā Rather, itās āhas have the harms from sports gambling on prediction markets outweighed their benefits?ā I donāt have a strong view on this, but it seems plausible so far.
I think the biggest impact, though, is that now prediction markets are becoming strongly associated with sports betting, in a way that threatens their political viability as a project.
I wonder how much value there would be in a company that principally doesnāt engage in sports betting. From my understanding, lots of people that bet on these markets like betting on non-sports claims but just hate the sports market component.
I also donāt think itās a defeater for prediction markets in general. However:
Iām actually pretty unsure about this. One issue is that by having CFTC-regulated sports betting āprediction marketsā, federal preemption causes sports betting to expand into states that would otherwise prohibit it.
Also, I donāt think the right question is āhave prediction markets contributed to the success of sports gambling?ā Rather, itās āhas have the harms from sports gambling on prediction markets outweighed their benefits?ā I donāt have a strong view on this, but it seems plausible so far.
I think the biggest impact, though, is that now prediction markets are becoming strongly associated with sports betting, in a way that threatens their political viability as a project.
I wonder how much value there would be in a company that principally doesnāt engage in sports betting. From my understanding, lots of people that bet on these markets like betting on non-sports claims but just hate the sports market component.