I also don’t think it’s a defeater for prediction markets in general. However:
the net contribution of prediction markets to sports gambling success is probably pretty minimal.
I’m actually pretty unsure about this. One issue is that by having CFTC-regulated sports betting
“prediction markets”, federal preemption causes sports betting to expand into states that would otherwise prohibit it.
Also, I don’t think the right question is “have prediction markets contributed to the success of sports gambling?” Rather, it’s “has have the harms from sports gambling on prediction markets outweighed their benefits?” I don’t have a strong view on this, but it seems plausible so far.
I think the biggest impact, though, is that now prediction markets are becoming strongly associated with sports betting, in a way that threatens their political viability as a project.
I wonder how much value there would be in a company that principally doesn’t engage in sports betting. From my understanding, lots of people that bet on these markets like betting on non-sports claims but just hate the sports market component.
I also don’t think it’s a defeater for prediction markets in general. However:
I’m actually pretty unsure about this. One issue is that by having CFTC-regulated sports betting “prediction markets”, federal preemption causes sports betting to expand into states that would otherwise prohibit it.
Also, I don’t think the right question is “have prediction markets contributed to the success of sports gambling?” Rather, it’s “has have the harms from sports gambling on prediction markets outweighed their benefits?” I don’t have a strong view on this, but it seems plausible so far.
I think the biggest impact, though, is that now prediction markets are becoming strongly associated with sports betting, in a way that threatens their political viability as a project.
It also expanded access to teenagers while most states that allowed it had restricted it to 21+
Wow good point.
I wonder how much value there would be in a company that principally doesn’t engage in sports betting. From my understanding, lots of people that bet on these markets like betting on non-sports claims but just hate the sports market component.