@Holly Elmore ⏸️ 🔸[1], here is an alternative bet I am open to. If, until the end of 2028, Metaculus’ question about superintelligent AI:
Resolves with a date, I transfer to you 10 k 2025-January-$.
Does not resolve, you transfer to me 10 k 2025-January-$.
Resolves ambiguously, nothing happens.
The resolution date of the bet can be moved such that it would be good for you. I think the bet above would be neutral for you in terms of purchasing power if your median date of superintelligent AI as defined by Metaculus was the end of 2028.
That is a perspective you could inhabit, but it also seems contradictory with the vibe in “Hmm, I wonder what we would bet on”
Well if someone has a great suggestion that’s the objection it has to overcome
@Holly Elmore ⏸️ 🔸[1], here is an alternative bet I am open to. If, until the end of 2028, Metaculus’ question about superintelligent AI:
Resolves with a date, I transfer to you 10 k 2025-January-$.
Does not resolve, you transfer to me 10 k 2025-January-$.
Resolves ambiguously, nothing happens.
The resolution date of the bet can be moved such that it would be good for you. I think the bet above would be neutral for you in terms of purchasing power if your median date of superintelligent AI as defined by Metaculus was the end of 2028.
I am tagging you because I clarified a little the bet.