No offense to forecasting, which is good and worthwhile, but I think trying to come with a bet in this case is a guaranteed time suck that will muddy the waters instead of clarifying them. There are very few crisp falsifiable hypotheses that also get at the cruxes of whether it’s better to donate to PauseAI or animal welfare given that that’s not already clear to Vasco that I think would make good bets unfortunately.
No offense to forecasting, which is good and worthwhile, but I think trying to come with a bet in this case is a guaranteed time suck that will muddy the waters instead of clarifying them. There are very few crisp falsifiable hypotheses that also get at the cruxes of whether it’s better to donate to PauseAI or animal welfare given that that’s not already clear to Vasco that I think would make good bets unfortunately.
https://x.com/ilex_ulmus/status/1776724461636735244
That is a perspective you could inhabit, but it also seems contradictory with the vibe in “Hmm, I wonder what we would bet on”
Well if someone has a great suggestion that’s the objection it has to overcome