I think there are a lot of people who are already doctors who can use that to do a lot of good, and there are some naive EAs who suggest they should drop their 25 years of medical experience to become a technical AI safety researcher. No! Maybe they should become a public health policy expert; maybe they should keep being a great doctor.
I also think a lot of people value their local community theatre and want it to continue—they enjoy it, it’s a hobby. If they and others donate, the theatre continues to exist, otherwise it doesn’t. I wouldn’t suggest they should become freeriders.
I do think anyone who has any decent shot at being an AI Safety researcher should probably stop being a doctor and try doing that instead. I do think that many people don’t fit that category, though some of the most prominent doctors in the community who quit their job (Ryan Carey and Gregory Lewis) have fit that bill, and I am exceptionally glad for them to have made that decision.
I don’t currently know of a reliable way to actually do a lot of good as a doctor. As such, I don’t know why from an impact perspective I should suggest that people continue being a doctor. Of course there are outliers, but as career advice goes, it strikes me as one of the most reliably bad decisions I’ve seen people make. It also seems from a personal perspective a pretty reliably bad choice, with depression and suicide rates being far above population average.
The ‘any decent shot’ is doing a lot of work in that first sentence, given how hard the field is to get into. And even then you only say ‘probably stop’.
There’s a motte/bailey thing going on here, where the motte is something like ‘AI safety researchers probably do a lot more good than doctors’ and the bailey is ‘all doctors who come into contact with EA should be told to stop what they are doing and switch to becoming (e.g.) AI safety researchers, because that’s how bad being a doctor is’.
I don’t think we are making the world a better place by doing the second; where possible we should stick to ‘probably’ and communicate the first, nuance and all, as you did do here but as Khorton is noting people often don’t do in person.
The “probably” there is just for the case of becoming an AI safety researcher. The argument for why being a doctor seems rarely the right choice does of course not just route through AI Alignment being important. It routes through a large number of alternative careers that seem more promising, many of which are analyzed and listed on 80k’s website. That is what my second paragraph was trying to say.
I think if you take into account all of those alternatives, the “probably” turns into a “very likely” and conditioning on “any decent shot” no longer seems necessary to me.
I don’t currently know of a reliable way to actually do a lot of good as a doctor.
I do know of such a way, but that might be because we have different things in mind when we say ‘reliably do a lot of good’.
Some specialisations for doctors are very high earning. If someone was on the path to being a doctor and could still specialise in one of them, that is what I would suggest as an earning-to-give strategy. If they might also do a great job as a quant trader, I would also suggest checking that out. But I doubt most doctors make good quant traders, so it might still be one of the best opportunities for them.
I am less familiar with this and therefore not confident, but there are also some specialisations Doctors without Borders have a hard time filling (while for some, there is an over-supply). I think this would be worth looking into, as well as other paths to deliver medical expertise in developing countries.
Some specialisations for doctors are very high earning. If someone was on the path to being a doctor and could still specialise in one of them, that is what I would suggest as an earning-to-give strategy.
Yeah, I do think this is plausible. When I last did a fermi on this I tended to overestimate the lifetime earnings of doctors because I didn’t properly account for the many years of additional education required to become one, which often cost a ton of money and of course replace potential other career paths during that same time, so my current guess is that while being a doctor is definitely high-paying, I think it’s not actually that great for EtG.
The key difference here does seem to be whether you are already past the point where you finished your education. After you finished med-school or maybe even have your own practice, then it’s pretty likely being a doctor will be the best way for you to earn lots of money, but if you are trying to decide whether to become a doctor and haven’t started med-school, I think it’s rarely the right choice from an impact perspective.
I want to point out that there’s something unfair that you did here. You pointed out that AI safety is more important, and that there were two doctors that left medical practice. Ryan does AI safety now, but Greg does Biosecurity, and frankly, the fact he has an MD is fairly important for his ability to interact with policymakers in the UK. So one of your examples is at least very weak, if not evidence for the opposite of what you claimed.
”A reliable way to actually do a lot of good as a doctor” doesn’t just mean not practicing; many doctors are in research, or policy, making a far greater difference—and their background in clinical medicine can be anywhere from a useful credential to being critical to their work.
Huh, I didn’t have a sense that Greg’s medical degree helped much with his work, but could totally be convinced otherwise.
Thinking more about it, I think I also just fully retract Greg as an example for other reasons. I think for many other people’s epistemic states the above goes through, but I wouldn’t personally think that he necessarily made the right call.
I’m particularly annoyed by this because I’ve seen this play out in person—I’ve invited respected professionals to EA events who were seriously disrespected by people with dubious and overconfident ideas.
I think there are a lot of people who are already doctors who can use that to do a lot of good, and there are some naive EAs who suggest they should drop their 25 years of medical experience to become a technical AI safety researcher. No! Maybe they should become a public health policy expert; maybe they should keep being a great doctor.
I also think a lot of people value their local community theatre and want it to continue—they enjoy it, it’s a hobby. If they and others donate, the theatre continues to exist, otherwise it doesn’t. I wouldn’t suggest they should become freeriders.
I do think anyone who has any decent shot at being an AI Safety researcher should probably stop being a doctor and try doing that instead. I do think that many people don’t fit that category, though some of the most prominent doctors in the community who quit their job (Ryan Carey and Gregory Lewis) have fit that bill, and I am exceptionally glad for them to have made that decision.
I don’t currently know of a reliable way to actually do a lot of good as a doctor. As such, I don’t know why from an impact perspective I should suggest that people continue being a doctor. Of course there are outliers, but as career advice goes, it strikes me as one of the most reliably bad decisions I’ve seen people make. It also seems from a personal perspective a pretty reliably bad choice, with depression and suicide rates being far above population average.
The ‘any decent shot’ is doing a lot of work in that first sentence, given how hard the field is to get into. And even then you only say ‘probably stop’.
There’s a motte/bailey thing going on here, where the motte is something like ‘AI safety researchers probably do a lot more good than doctors’ and the bailey is ‘all doctors who come into contact with EA should be told to stop what they are doing and switch to becoming (e.g.) AI safety researchers, because that’s how bad being a doctor is’.
I don’t think we are making the world a better place by doing the second; where possible we should stick to ‘probably’ and communicate the first, nuance and all, as you did do here but as Khorton is noting people often don’t do in person.
The “probably” there is just for the case of becoming an AI safety researcher. The argument for why being a doctor seems rarely the right choice does of course not just route through AI Alignment being important. It routes through a large number of alternative careers that seem more promising, many of which are analyzed and listed on 80k’s website. That is what my second paragraph was trying to say.
I think if you take into account all of those alternatives, the “probably” turns into a “very likely” and conditioning on “any decent shot” no longer seems necessary to me.
I do know of such a way, but that might be because we have different things in mind when we say ‘reliably do a lot of good’.
Some specialisations for doctors are very high earning. If someone was on the path to being a doctor and could still specialise in one of them, that is what I would suggest as an earning-to-give strategy. If they might also do a great job as a quant trader, I would also suggest checking that out. But I doubt most doctors make good quant traders, so it might still be one of the best opportunities for them.
I am less familiar with this and therefore not confident, but there are also some specialisations Doctors without Borders have a hard time filling (while for some, there is an over-supply). I think this would be worth looking into, as well as other paths to deliver medical expertise in developing countries.
Yeah, I do think this is plausible. When I last did a fermi on this I tended to overestimate the lifetime earnings of doctors because I didn’t properly account for the many years of additional education required to become one, which often cost a ton of money and of course replace potential other career paths during that same time, so my current guess is that while being a doctor is definitely high-paying, I think it’s not actually that great for EtG.
The key difference here does seem to be whether you are already past the point where you finished your education. After you finished med-school or maybe even have your own practice, then it’s pretty likely being a doctor will be the best way for you to earn lots of money, but if you are trying to decide whether to become a doctor and haven’t started med-school, I think it’s rarely the right choice from an impact perspective.
Agree with all of the above!
I want to point out that there’s something unfair that you did here. You pointed out that AI safety is more important, and that there were two doctors that left medical practice. Ryan does AI safety now, but Greg does Biosecurity, and frankly, the fact he has an MD is fairly important for his ability to interact with policymakers in the UK. So one of your examples is at least very weak, if not evidence for the opposite of what you claimed.
”A reliable way to actually do a lot of good as a doctor” doesn’t just mean not practicing; many doctors are in research, or policy, making a far greater difference—and their background in clinical medicine can be anywhere from a useful credential to being critical to their work.
Huh, I didn’t have a sense that Greg’s medical degree helped much with his work, but could totally be convinced otherwise.
Thinking more about it, I think I also just fully retract Greg as an example for other reasons. I think for many other people’s epistemic states the above goes through, but I wouldn’t personally think that he necessarily made the right call.
I’m particularly annoyed by this because I’ve seen this play out in person—I’ve invited respected professionals to EA events who were seriously disrespected by people with dubious and overconfident ideas.