Thanks for posting this! I appreciate the overview and attempt to build conceptual clarity around this related cluster of ideas that you neatly refer to Very Positive Futures.
To respond to some of your prompts:
What are your views on the potential pros and cons of more focus on VPF? With which points do you agree or disagree? What are other arguments?
I think you summarized the pros and cons quite well but I’m just emphasizing the most compelling from my perspective.
IMO, the strongest pros are i) increased clarity on prioritization, ii) motivation/psychology (anecdotally, Martin Luther King’s speech started with “I have a dream” not “I have a nightmare” and similarly it seems that positive psychology has made some progress that the original dysfunction-oriented psychology didn’t), and iii) being able to attract a different crowd of people.
IMO, the strongest cons are i) risk of unconditional enthusiasm that might end up being a distraction from the very pressing risks and suffering.
Which term resonates most with you: Existential Hope, Positive Trajectory Change, Utopia, or perhaps a similar term not described in the post?
I quite like Existential hope. Another term that resonates is “future vision”.
MacAskill briefly talks about procedural visions which I also quite like. Finally, I’d imagine that people within the EA space would also resonate quite a bit with “Existential Security”.
I think some interesting initiatives related to VPF are:
FLI’s world-building contest.
Karnofsky’s poll of 400 Americans’ responses to 16 different scenarios and 22 different traits of utopia.
Finally, I’d like to ask—if you had to design an introductory course that includes VPF, what are the key concepts, resources, or arguments you’d want to include?
“Existential security” seems like a great one within EA.
Have not seen the “procedural visions” one! Thanks for recommending it, will look.
On your course question: As we are currently working on something similar to this at Foresight right now I will answer similarly to what we are thinking of adding there. Which is to do ambitious worldbuilding in groups of 4-5 people with complementary skill sets. Will share more when our resources are online for that!
Thanks for posting this!
I appreciate the overview and attempt to build conceptual clarity around this related cluster of ideas that you neatly refer to Very Positive Futures.
To respond to some of your prompts:
What are your views on the potential pros and cons of more focus on VPF? With which points do you agree or disagree? What are other arguments?
I think you summarized the pros and cons quite well but I’m just emphasizing the most compelling from my perspective.
IMO, the strongest pros are i) increased clarity on prioritization, ii) motivation/psychology (anecdotally, Martin Luther King’s speech started with “I have a dream” not “I have a nightmare” and similarly it seems that positive psychology has made some progress that the original dysfunction-oriented psychology didn’t), and iii) being able to attract a different crowd of people.
IMO, the strongest cons are i) risk of unconditional enthusiasm that might end up being a distraction from the very pressing risks and suffering.
Which term resonates most with you: Existential Hope, Positive Trajectory Change, Utopia, or perhaps a similar term not described in the post?
I quite like Existential hope. Another term that resonates is “future vision”.
MacAskill briefly talks about procedural visions which I also quite like. Finally, I’d imagine that people within the EA space would also resonate quite a bit with “Existential Security”.
I think some interesting initiatives related to VPF are:
FLI’s world-building contest.
Karnofsky’s poll of 400 Americans’ responses to 16 different scenarios and 22 different traits of utopia.
Finally, I’d like to ask—if you had to design an introductory course that includes VPF, what are the key concepts, resources, or arguments you’d want to include?
Thanks for your comment!
Agree with your pros and cons.
“Existential security” seems like a great one within EA.
Have not seen the “procedural visions” one! Thanks for recommending it, will look.
On your course question: As we are currently working on something similar to this at Foresight right now I will answer similarly to what we are thinking of adding there. Which is to do ambitious worldbuilding in groups of 4-5 people with complementary skill sets. Will share more when our resources are online for that!
Thank you! :)
Glad it was useful. Looking forward to seeing the course (fortunate that you had reached out to request feedback on it).