Do you have private access to the Good Judgement data? I’ve been thinking before about how it would be good to get superforecasters to answer such questions but didn’t know of a way to access the results of previous questions.
(Though there is the question of how much superforecasters’ previous track record on short-term questions translates to success on longer-term questions.)
GJ results (as opposed Good Judgment Open) aren’t public, but Open Phil has an account with them. This is from a batch of nuclear war probability questions I suggested that Open Phil commission to help assess nuclear risk interventions.
Hi Carl, is there any progress on this end in the past year? I’d be very interested to see x-risk relevant forecasts (currently working on a related project).
Do you have private access to the Good Judgement data? I’ve been thinking before about how it would be good to get superforecasters to answer such questions but didn’t know of a way to access the results of previous questions.
(Though there is the question of how much superforecasters’ previous track record on short-term questions translates to success on longer-term questions.)
GJ results (as opposed Good Judgment Open) aren’t public, but Open Phil has an account with them. This is from a batch of nuclear war probability questions I suggested that Open Phil commission to help assess nuclear risk interventions.
This is really cool, Carl. Thanks for sharing. Do superforecasters ever make judgments about other x-risks?
Not by default, but I hope to get more useful forecasts that are EA action-relevant in the future performed and published.
Hi Carl, is there any progress on this end in the past year? I’d be very interested to see x-risk relevant forecasts (currently working on a related project).