The John Hopkins disease prediction project lists 3 questions. You have to sign up to view them. (I also think you can’t see the crowd average before you’ve made your prediction.)
I suggest the question you’ve linked has an artificially low upper bound. Please could you update the link with this Metaculus question which, without the upper bound, provides a better prediction.
All metaculus questions are about cases, not deaths. Currently the most up to date community prediction is a 7% chance of over a billion cases this year. I am not sure where you found the claim you cite. Apologies if I’ve made some mistake.
I suggest the question you’ve linked has an artificially low upper bound
The question has an upper bound of 100 million deaths, not cases. I don’t think that is “artificially low”.
Maybe you are confusing Hurford’s link with this old question, which does have an artificially low upper bound and deals with cases instead of deaths.
All metaculus questions are about cases, not deaths.
Most of them are, but the one Hurford linked to is explicitly about the number of deaths: “How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) before 2021?”.
I am not sure where you found the claim you cite
If you look at the bottom of the page, it says that the community predicts a ~3% chance of greater than 100 million deaths. Previously, it said 2% for the same number of deaths.
Just to be absolutely clear about what I am referring to, here is a screenshot of the relevant part of the UI.
Note: The relevant Metaculus for this forecast also has currently ~2% odds on this level of catastrophe.
In addition, I’ll mention:
Foretold is tracking ~20 questions and is open to anyone adding their own, but doesn’t have very many predictions.
In addition to the one you mentioned, Metaculus is tracking a handful of other questions and has a substantial number of predictions.
The John Hopkins disease prediction project lists 3 questions. You have to sign up to view them. (I also think you can’t see the crowd average before you’ve made your prediction.)
Hey,
I suggest the question you’ve linked has an artificially low upper bound. Please could you update the link with this Metaculus question which, without the upper bound, provides a better prediction.
All metaculus questions are about cases, not deaths. Currently the most up to date community prediction is a 7% chance of over a billion cases this year. I am not sure where you found the claim you cite. Apologies if I’ve made some mistake.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021-question-two/
The question has an upper bound of 100 million deaths, not cases. I don’t think that is “artificially low”.
Maybe you are confusing Hurford’s link with this old question, which does have an artificially low upper bound and deals with cases instead of deaths.
Most of them are, but the one Hurford linked to is explicitly about the number of deaths: “How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) before 2021?”.
If you look at the bottom of the page, it says that the community predicts a ~3% chance of greater than 100 million deaths. Previously, it said 2% for the same number of deaths.
Just to be absolutely clear about what I am referring to, here is a screenshot of the relevant part of the UI.
You are entirely correct. My bad.
[Comment not relevant]