I will think about the other points later. But I definitely agree that there’s a distinct possibility that people join because of the pledge drive are less likely to be committed than people who join normally, and that this worry, if true, will be a significant concern to the validity of any impact measurement for the drive.
That said, as a separate point I actually think (~60% confidence) that people who join from hearing about the drive through the media, rather than from a social network initially high in EAs, are more likely to be committed rather than less. This is because they had less initial contact with EAs before being convinced of the idea, suggesting that they had strong innate urges in that direction that did not require a lot of “push” from a social environment conducive to EAness. Does that make sense?
Another data point is how a sizeable minority of EAs (over-represented here and on the FB groups) barely need any convincing for EA...it just made sense as soon as they heard about it.
However, even if my theory about media pledgers being more committed than pledgers from a peer group high in EAs, this is not necessarily evidence against the worry that the pledge drive’s pledgers are on average less committed than normal, since like you said, most people who joined from the pledge drive are not due to media outreach.
This is because they had less initial contact with EAs before being convinced of the idea, suggesting that they had strong innate urges in that direction that did not require a lot of “push” from a social environment conducive to EAness. Does that make sense?
Yeah, I could buy that. If there’s a certain amount of people that will just get EA immediately (which seems plausible based on what we know so far), then it makes sense that the pledge drive—like any other media campaign—would uncover some of those people.
I will think about the other points later. But I definitely agree that there’s a distinct possibility that people join because of the pledge drive are less likely to be committed than people who join normally, and that this worry, if true, will be a significant concern to the validity of any impact measurement for the drive.
That said, as a separate point I actually think (~60% confidence) that people who join from hearing about the drive through the media, rather than from a social network initially high in EAs, are more likely to be committed rather than less. This is because they had less initial contact with EAs before being convinced of the idea, suggesting that they had strong innate urges in that direction that did not require a lot of “push” from a social environment conducive to EAness. Does that make sense?
Another data point is how a sizeable minority of EAs (over-represented here and on the FB groups) barely need any convincing for EA...it just made sense as soon as they heard about it.
However, even if my theory about media pledgers being more committed than pledgers from a peer group high in EAs, this is not necessarily evidence against the worry that the pledge drive’s pledgers are on average less committed than normal, since like you said, most people who joined from the pledge drive are not due to media outreach.
Yeah, I could buy that. If there’s a certain amount of people that will just get EA immediately (which seems plausible based on what we know so far), then it makes sense that the pledge drive—like any other media campaign—would uncover some of those people.