Some of my models feel like they have a mix of reasonable stuff and wanton speculation, and this comment sort of makes it a bit more clear which of the wanton speculation is more reasonable, and which is more on the deep end.
For instance:
in the case of criminal justice reform, there were some key facts of the decision-making process that aren’t public and are unlikely to ever be public
.
My guess is that a “highly intelligent idealized utilitarian agent” probably would have invested a fair bit less in criminal justice reform than OP did, if at all.
.
I think we can rarely fully trust the public reasons for large actions by large institutions. When a CEO leaves to “spend more time with family”, there’s almost always another good explanation. I think OP is much better than most organizations at being honest, but I’d expect that they still face this issue to an extent. As such, I think we shouldn’t be too surprised when some decisions they make seem strange when evaluating them based on their given public explanations.
in the case of criminal justice reform, there were some key facts of the decision-making process that aren’t public and are unlikely to ever be public
Seems obviously true and in fact a continued premise of your post is that there are key facts absent that could explain or fail to explain one decision or the other. Is this particularly true in crminal justice reform? Compared to IDK orgs like AMF (which are hyper transparent by design) maybe, compared to stuff around AI risk I think not.
My guess is that a “highly intelligent idealized utilitarian agent” probably would have invested a fair bit less in criminal justice reform than OP did, if at all.
This is like the same thesis as your post, does not actually convey much information (it is what anyone I assume would have already guessed Ozzie thought).
I think we can rarely fully trust the public reasons for large actions by large institutions. When a CEO leaves to “spend more time with family”, there’s almost always another good explanation. I think OP is much better than most organizations at being honest, but I’d expect that they still face this issue to an extent. As such, I think we shouldn’t be too surprised when some decisions they make seem strange when evaluating them based on their given public explanations.
Yeah I mean, no kidding. But it’s called Open Philanthropy. It’s easy to imagine there exists a niche for a meta-charity with high transaparency and visibility. It also seems clear that Open Philanthropy advertises as a fulfillment of this niche as much as possible and that donors do want this. So when their behavior seems strange in a cause area and the amount of transparency on it is very low, I think this is notable, even if the norm among orgs is to obfuscate internal phenomena. So I don’t rlly endorse any normative takeaway from this point about how orgs usually obfuscate information.
Yeah I mean, no kidding. But it’s called Open Philanthropy. It’s easy to imagine there exists a niche for a meta-charity with high transaparency and visibility. It also seems clear that Open Philanthropy advertises as a fulfillment of this niche as much as possible and that donors do want this.
I don’t understand this point. Can you spell it out?
From my perspective, Open Phil’s main legible contribution is a) identifying great donation opportunities, b) recommending Cari Tuna and Dustin Moskovitz to donate to such opportunities, and c) building up an apparatus to do so at scale.
Their donors are specific people, not hypothetical “donors who want transparency.” I assume Open Phil is quite candid/transparent with their actual donors, though of course I don’t have visibility here.
In fairness, the situation is a bit confusing. Open Phil came from GiveWell, which is meant for external donors. In comparison, as Linch mentioned, Open Phil mainly recommends donations just to Good Ventures (Cari Tuna and Dustin Moskovitz). My impression is that OP’s main concern is directly making good grants, not recommending good grants to other funders. Therefore, a large amount of public research is not particularly crucial.
I think the name is probably not quite ideal for this purpose. I think of it more like “Highly Effective Philanthropy”; it seems their comparative advantage / unique attribute is much more their choices of focus and their talent pool, than it is their openness, at this point.
If there is frustration here, it seems like the frustration is a bit more “it would be nice if they could change their name to be more reflective of their current focus”, than “they should change their work to reflect the previous title they chose”.
Some of my models feel like they have a mix of reasonable stuff and wanton speculation, and this comment sort of makes it a bit more clear which of the wanton speculation is more reasonable, and which is more on the deep end.
For instance:
.
.
.
Well this is still confusing to me
Seems obviously true and in fact a continued premise of your post is that there are key facts absent that could explain or fail to explain one decision or the other. Is this particularly true in crminal justice reform? Compared to IDK orgs like AMF (which are hyper transparent by design) maybe, compared to stuff around AI risk I think not.
This is like the same thesis as your post, does not actually convey much information (it is what anyone I assume would have already guessed Ozzie thought).
Yeah I mean, no kidding. But it’s called Open Philanthropy. It’s easy to imagine there exists a niche for a meta-charity with high transaparency and visibility. It also seems clear that Open Philanthropy advertises as a fulfillment of this niche as much as possible and that donors do want this. So when their behavior seems strange in a cause area and the amount of transparency on it is very low, I think this is notable, even if the norm among orgs is to obfuscate internal phenomena. So I don’t rlly endorse any normative takeaway from this point about how orgs usually obfuscate information.
I don’t understand this point. Can you spell it out?
From my perspective, Open Phil’s main legible contribution is a) identifying great donation opportunities, b) recommending Cari Tuna and Dustin Moskovitz to donate to such opportunities, and c) building up an apparatus to do so at scale.
Their donors are specific people, not hypothetical “donors who want transparency.” I assume Open Phil is quite candid/transparent with their actual donors, though of course I don’t have visibility here.
In fairness, the situation is a bit confusing. Open Phil came from GiveWell, which is meant for external donors. In comparison, as Linch mentioned, Open Phil mainly recommends donations just to Good Ventures (Cari Tuna and Dustin Moskovitz). My impression is that OP’s main concern is directly making good grants, not recommending good grants to other funders. Therefore, a large amount of public research is not particularly crucial.
I think the name is probably not quite ideal for this purpose. I think of it more like “Highly Effective Philanthropy”; it seems their comparative advantage / unique attribute is much more their choices of focus and their talent pool, than it is their openness, at this point.
If there is frustration here, it seems like the frustration is a bit more “it would be nice if they could change their name to be more reflective of their current focus”, than “they should change their work to reflect the previous title they chose”.
Sorry I did not realize that OP doesn’t solicit donations from non megadonors. I agree this recontextualizes how we should interpret transparency.
Given the lack of donor diversity, tho, I am confused why their cause areas would be so diverse.