With Covid, we had the bizarre situation where the biggest global disaster since World War II was very plausibly caused by a lab escape from a well-meaning but risky line of research on bat coronaviruses. Credible investigations of Covid origins are about evenly split on the matter. It is entirely possible that the actions of people at one particular lab may have killed more than 25 million people across the globe.
I’m far from an expert on the subject, but my impression was that a lot of people were convinced by the rootclaim debate that it was not a lab leak. Is there a specific piece of evidence they might have missed to suggest that lab leak is still plausible? (The debate focused on genetically modified leaks, and unfortunately didn’t discuss the possibility of a leak of naturally evolved disease).
I think Toby’s use of “evenly split” is a bit of a stretch in 2024 with the information available, but lab leak is definitely still plausible. To quote Scott in the review:
Fourth, for the first time it made me see the coronavirus as one of God’s biggest and funniest jokes. Think about it. Either a zoonotic virus crossed over to humans fifteen miles from the biggest coronavirus laboratory in the Eastern Hemisphere. Or a lab leak virus first rose to public attention right near a raccoon-dog stall in a wet market. Either way is one of the century’s biggest coincidences, designed by some cosmic joker who wanted to keep the debate [...] acrimonious for years to come.
I think lab leak is now a minority position among people who looked into it, but it’s not exactly a fringe view. I would guess at least some US intelligence agencies still think lab leak is more likely than not, for example.
I delivered this talk before the Rootclaim debate, though I haven’t followed that debate since, so can’t speak to how much it has changed views. I was thinking of the US intelligence community’s assessments and the diversity of opinions among credible people who’ve looked into it in detail.
Thanks for writing this update Toby!
I’m far from an expert on the subject, but my impression was that a lot of people were convinced by the rootclaim debate that it was not a lab leak. Is there a specific piece of evidence they might have missed to suggest that lab leak is still plausible? (The debate focused on genetically modified leaks, and unfortunately didn’t discuss the possibility of a leak of naturally evolved disease).
I think Toby’s use of “evenly split” is a bit of a stretch in 2024 with the information available, but lab leak is definitely still plausible. To quote Scott in the review:
I think lab leak is now a minority position among people who looked into it, but it’s not exactly a fringe view. I would guess at least some US intelligence agencies still think lab leak is more likely than not, for example.
I delivered this talk before the Rootclaim debate, though I haven’t followed that debate since, so can’t speak to how much it has changed views. I was thinking of the US intelligence community’s assessments and the diversity of opinions among credible people who’ve looked into it in detail.