Forecast With GiveWell

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November 1st Update: Prize Pool Increased to $2250

The commenting prize pool has increased from $1000 to $2250 thanks to the generosity of two donors: @Austin and @Saul Munn. Thank you, Austin and Saul! (See comment section for more.)

New Prize Payout Scale

• The new max award for a single participating commenter is $1,000

Ten prizes will be distributed as follows:

• The 1st place comment wins $300

• 2nd & third place comments each win $275

• The 4th through 10th place comments each receive $200

Announcement Post

GiveWell’s mission is to find the charities that deliver the greatest impact per dollar spent to help donors decide where to give. To support this, they publish forecasts on expected grant outcomes. Now, Metaculus and GiveWell invite you to forecast and share your reasoning to help GiveWell help others.

Get started and provide feedback on GiveWell’s funding decisions. $1,000 commenting prize pool. Deadline is December 1st, 2024.

• How much will GiveWell update its cost-effectiveness estimate of GiveDirectly based on the results of the 2023-2024 follow-up of the Cash Transfers Study by UC Berkeley?

• Will the study in Ghana find that RTS,S combined with malaria chemoprevention reduces clinical malaria more than RTS,S alone in the following age groups?

• Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

• Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?

• Will GiveWell recommend grants of more than $5 million to support delivering chlorine and/​or oral rehydration solution and zinc along with vaccine outreach services?

• Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/​zinc usage by the recipients?

• Will the study of chlorine distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage by the recipients?

• How many chlorination grants will GiveWell recommend after September 20, 2024, and before January 1, 2026?

• Will the household water chlorination rate be 65% or higher for households served in the first two years of Evidence Action’s program in Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh?

• Will in-line chlorination devices serve at least 6.7 million people in Madhya Pradesh at the end of the 4th year of Evidence Action’s program?

• Will in-line chlorination devices serve at least 5.8 million people in Andhra Pradesh at the end of the 4th year of Evidence Action’s program?

Prize Details

• A $1,000 total prize pool is available for comments on eligible questions.

• Five top comments will each receive $200, with individual participants able to win up to $400.

• GiveWell researchers will select winning comments based on:

  • Clarity: Clear presentation of reasoning and conclusions.

  • Reasoning: Thoughtful predictions grounded in evidence.

  • Impact: Potential to influence GiveWell’s confidence in its forecasts.

Metaculus will share high-quality comments with GiveWell after the submission deadline. Prizes will be awarded in January 2025.

Note: Employees of GiveWell, their immediate family members, and those living in the same household are not eligible for prizes.