TagLast edit: 20 May 2021 17:05 UTC by Pablo

Metaculus is a reputation-based site for soliciting and aggregating predictions. It was founded in November 2015 by astrophysicist Anthony Aguirre, cosmologist Greg Laughlin and data scientist Max Wainwright (Mann 2016; Shelton 2016).


Aguirre, Anthony (2016) Predicting the future (of life), Future of Life Institute, January 24.

Mann, Adam (2016) The power of prediction markets, Nature, October 18.

Shelton, Jim (2016) Metaculus: A prediction website with an eye on science and technology, YaleNews, November 2.

External links

Metaculus. Official website.

Related entries

AI forecasting | forecasting | prediction markets

Data on fore­cast­ing ac­cu­racy across differ­ent time hori­zons and lev­els of fore­caster experience

Charles_Dillon 27 May 2021 18:51 UTC
89 points
0 comments23 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Ben­tham Prize

Pablo21 Jan 2020 22:23 UTC
32 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Question] What im­por­tant ques­tions are miss­ing from Me­tac­u­lus?

Charles_Dillon 26 May 2021 14:03 UTC
37 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Nu­clear Risk Fore­cast­ing Tournament

MichaelA16 Jun 2021 16:12 UTC
36 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus is hiring

aaguirre9 Dec 2020 20:58 UTC
30 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­casts about EA or­gani­sa­tions which are cur­rently on Me­tac­u­lus.

alexrjl29 Dec 2020 17:42 UTC
60 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] What ques­tions would you like to see fore­casts on from the Me­tac­u­lus com­mu­nity?

alexrjl26 Jul 2020 14:40 UTC
30 points
30 comments2 min readEA link

A quick and crude com­par­i­son of epi­demiolog­i­cal ex­pert fore­casts ver­sus Me­tac­u­lus fore­casts for COVID-19

Justin Otto2 Apr 2020 19:29 UTC
9 points
7 comments1 min readEA link