Do impact certificates help if you’re not sure your work is effective?

I’ve heard a plan to use im­pact cer­tifi­cates ( https://​​medium.com/​​@paulfchris­ti­ano/​​cer­tifi­cates-of-im­pact-34fa4621481e ) in the fol­low­ing way.

Sup­pose I work at org A, but I ac­tu­ally value work at org B more. The plan is that I get im­pact cer­tifi­cates for my work for A, and find a buyer who is will­ing to give me B-cer­tifi­cates in ex­change for my A-cer­tifi­cates. Now I have some amount of B-cer­tifi­cates, which is like do­ing work for B in the first place.

I’m not con­vinced on this. My ques­tion: if I don’t think work at A is valuable, why should I trust the mar­ket to know bet­ter than me? I’m okay with the stock mar­ket de­ter­min­ing good prices for shares of Microsoft, but that mar­ket is huge; the im­pact cer­tifi­cate mar­ket is likely to be small for at least a while.

An anal­ogy: when should I trust Pre­dic­tIt’s mar­ket (https://​​www.pre­dic­tit.org/​​mar­kets/​​de­tail/​​3633/​​Who-will-win-the-2020-Demo­cratic-pres­i­den­tial-nom­i­na­tion) on who will win the Demo­cratic nom­i­na­tion over Nate Silver’s anal­y­sis ( https://​​pro­jects.fivethir­tyeight.com/​​2020-pri­mary-fore­cast)? Right now the two dis­agree sig­nifi­cantly on Bloomberg’s chances (Pre­dic­tIt gives 25%, Nate Silver gives him 4%).

Another an­gle on the con­cern: or­di­nar­ily, when you be­lieve B > A, you “vote with your feet” by do­ing B in­stead of do­ing A. In this situ­a­tion, you in­stead are effec­tively “vot­ing” to lower the price of A-cer­tifi­cates on the mar­ket. So you’re trad­ing off one against the other. But it seems likely that many peo­ple will take you work­ing at A as an en­dorse­ment of A. This con­ven­tion is re­ally strong; I cer­tainly do it. Un­less you put “I ACTUALLY TRADE ALL THESE IMPACT CERTIFICATES FOR B-CERTIFICATES” on your LinkedIn and men­tion it to peo­ple you meet at par­ties, I think peo­ple will con­tinue to do it.

I’m con­cerned that split­ting the “vote” be­tween these two meth­ods will do harm to the com­mu­nity’s abil­ity to de­cide what types of work are good.

What are peo­ple’s thoughts on this? Any writ­ten re­sources? (I can’t find much on im­pact certs be­yond Paul’s origi­nal post.)