I want to know how people estimate the probabilty of AI takeoff and causing humans extinction, and the details(such as: Humans attitude on AI safety, how AI gain physical access to world, how AI is good at tricking humans...) people consider on to predict. But I can only find estimation “results” on EA forum(mostly 2-10% in this century), but I don’t know how you estimate it. Did you use complex math models to calculate? I know we should take a pinch of salt with the prediction, but I just want to know what people considers as important factors of AI risks.
[Question] What’s the exact way you predict probability of AI extinction?
I want to know how people estimate the probabilty of AI takeoff and causing humans extinction, and the details(such as: Humans attitude on AI safety, how AI gain physical access to world, how AI is good at tricking humans...) people consider on to predict. But I can only find estimation “results” on EA forum(mostly 2-10% in this century), but I don’t know how you estimate it. Did you use complex math models to calculate? I know we should take a pinch of salt with the prediction, but I just want to know what people considers as important factors of AI risks.