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My impression is that these concerns are in practice pretty much recognized, which is behind the EA focus on extinction or similar permanent changes, i.e. absorbing states. Forecast precision becomes irrelevant after entering an absorbing state, and so becomes “diminution” and “washing out” (“option unawareness” still seems relevant).
I think you are right that in practice much of Longtermist work is concerned with extinction risk. However, this paper (and others like it from GPI) are concerned with whether Longtermism could have any wider implications. This is part of the value of their work on Longtermism- either discovering or ruling out areas of practical work which don’t involve avoiding extinction/ lock-in. So dimunition, washing out etc… are all pretty relevant to the project of widening the implications of Longtermism (or not).
Thank you for writing this. I have not read the original paper, but I think the points here are very plausible and aren’t discussed enough.
Clicking through the original link, it looks like the paper was initially written in 2021. Is there a particular reason for prioritizing summarizing this paper now?
Is this essentially the same as the “cluelessness objection” to longtermism?